this post was submitted on 08 Feb 2025
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Mildly Infuriating
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I don’t think we will get to a place with self driving cars.
We're already in a place with self-driving cars. They are operating as taxis in a half dozen cities in North America already and Waymo is expanding to like 12 cities total in the next year.
It won't happen overnight, but the aren't science fiction at this point, it's just refinements.
Perhaps there but the UK I can’t see it.
Your government passed a law last year to allow it starting in 2026
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2024/10/contents/enacted
Perhaps I should have been clearer.
I can’t see it taking off, anywhere really, but here particularly as our roads are very different to American roads so I don’t think they’ll have much success outside of maybe a few limited areas.
I also don’t think we will ever get to a point of self driving being very popular. As you would need to get humans to stop driving really as a mix wouldn’t be very safe.
People said the same thing about cars taking over for horses.
People said the same thing about computers.
People said the same thing about the internet.
People said the same thing about cell phones.
I’m not sure people said those things.
I remember them saying the latter three myself....
So yes they did.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/gadgets-news/watch-microsoft-ceo-steve-ballmer-laughs-at-iphone/articleshow/92539357.cms
The CEO of Microsoft laughed at Apple when they released the iPhone saying people wouldn't use it because it was too expensive and didn't have a keyboard.
https://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306 1985 article from Newsweek called "Why the Web Won't Be Nirvana"
These are just two easily locatable links, I personally remember people saying these things wouldn't catch on.
I also remember people saying 3D TVs would catch on, and they clearly didn't.
Steve Balmer isn’t the most sound minded individual and it’s almost expected that Microsoft is going to play down Apple.
I don’t know too much about Clifford Stall but doesn’t seem like an expert in technology and so a poor assessment is to be expected.
3D TVs. We could find people who said 3D TVs were a fad. Almost like people say both things and they can’t all be correct.
To be clear. I think self driving cars might be a think in the distant future but not in mine or my children’s lives. Tesla has an insane amount of data and even they struggle in different sunlights and you couldn’t apply to that to the uk as the roads are so different that you would need an amount of data filmed in the UK. Then do that for all countries.
Are any other manufacturers even attempting this problem because Tesla is losing market share by the day and it won’t be long before their investors will want them to stop spending money on FSD to allow them to turn a profit. What with Elon turning most people away from his companies for being a cunt.
You've cast double on my links, but you're clearly too young to actually remember these things happening. I'm not. I do remember lots of people laughing and dismissing all three as never going to be for normal consumers (I'm not old enough to remember them laughing at cars)
You're also clearly not paying attention to this industry if you think Tesla is a leader. You've only caught what made the news in the UK.
Waymo is far and away the leader, having hundreds of cars driving around daily with nobody behind the steering wheel.
Mobileye(NA and Europe) and Baidu(China) are also actively driving around without drivers in certain places.
The only place Tesla has them fully autonomous is in the factory as far as I know.
I am in my 40’s and been in the internet pretty much since its inception.
I see Waymo are quite active in US cities so thanks for that.
Let’s come back in a few decades and we can look back on this and see whose guess, cause that’s all we are doing, is closest to the truth.
Just like many people could see the future of Netflix, there will always be a Blockbuster laughing them out of the room.
Your example about Netflix proved my point. Naysayers said it wouldn't work, but they are now the leader.
I'm happy to wait and see, I fully expect them to arrive in my city in the next decade.
But you missed the point in that had Netflix failed you could be here saying “see Blockbuster were correct”.
I’m not trying to be confrontational here and I’m saying this as I feel I might be coming across that way. What I’m trying to say is for every naysayer you can find someone who was the opposite and vice versa for all your examples. If that makes sense.
The benefit to self-driving cars is self-evident though. There's no argument that they wouldn't be better than human drivers in theory. Not only for safety, but for traffic, parking, cost, etc.
The only thing holding them back a this point is refinement. They have already proven that in at least three cities, they are mile for mile safer than human driven vehicles.
Waymo has gone from 1 city, to 3, to now pushing out to 11 in a few years. I wouldn't be surprised if it doubled 5 times again in the next 10 years. That would put it in just under 200 cities by 2035.
The first iPhone only sold a million units in the first year, but two years later there were 25 million iPhones and they hit the 200 million mark by year 5.
I can see the benefits but I can also see the downsides. Where do all the people who have driving jobs go? Do they just stop working as many might be too old to train for something new.
Where does liability fall for accidents?
What about cyberattacks? These are all things that need to be considered.
The first argument is a non-starter, professions have come and gone for all of human history. Where did all the people who raised and trained horses go when cars came out? Where did all the people go who made buggies and coaches? What about people who lost their jobs to construction equipment like excavators? What about switchboard operators at telephone companies?
The economy will re-organize itself to adapt to the newly available labour. Don't get me wrong, individuals are going to be absolutely devastated by this, but not replacing someone who's doing a job that can be automated is no different than having them dig a ditch and fill it back in. It's never a good idea to hold back technology just to keep jobs around. This path leads to the Amish.
Liability for accidents has already been sorted out for 100% autonomous cars, it's the vehicle manufacturer's fault. For most of the current ones on the road, they are modified existing vehicles, so the manufacturer would be said to be the self-driving company (like Waymo) though once the software is built in from the factory it will be on Ford or Nissan or whatever likely in partnership with a software vendor. They may insure themselves, but likely only against catastrophic situations rather than day-to-day accidents.
They are definitely considering cyberattacks.