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I've long ago given up any idea I can predict what the stock market is going to do. I would expect markets to reach poorly to this but there's been no significant budging. How do the rich that are invested in it think this will be good for anyone?
I suspect that is why every (?) tariff he has declared has been rescinded or delayed. He is pushing his boundaries and they are smacking him down at every step.
That said: Limited tariffs DO benefit the oligarchs. Because if Apple MIGHT need to bump up the price of an iphone, you can be sure that everyone is going to crank the prices up themselves. Same with oil and gas prices where it doesn't matter where a gas station sources fuel from, they are gonna bump up the prices.
As for why we haven't seen much volatility yet? People are doom spending.
With the iPhone they'd run into the price elasticity limitations. If the cheapest new iPhone is out of reach to consumers, they'll find a substitute that doesn't enrich Apple (that may be an Android , or a used Apple phone ).
With oil and gas, those are less elastic. People need to get to work/school and need to heat their homes/water.
You're right, this is the most likely answer I think.