this post was submitted on 08 Jan 2025
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Yes. He gave Trump like a 15% chance of winning which in a well calibrated model happens well 15% percent of the time. Which was larger than most other aggregators.
Good probabilistic functions are calibrated like that where the odds should be correct which includes the "loser" winning the amount of times its predicted. Before being bought out FiveThirtyEight did great retros on their sports bets to ensure that the winner did not win greater then predicted chance and the loser won at the correct rate. Its called model calibration