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Since Syria goverment has fallen, do we have any inkling of what will replace it?
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this post was submitted on 08 Dec 2024
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Likely the HTS, which is the main rebel group that lead the new offensive and which has already absorbed or eliminated many other groups in Syria.
They are a Sunni Islamist group, but they also are against Al-Queda. But only opposed to them since 2020. But HTS is still considered a terrorist organization by the US, UK, and Canada. But Timber Sycamore shows historically that the US may publicly designate a group as terrorists in Syria while style still supporting them privately. HTS is strongly opposed to Russia and has spilled a lot of blood to prove it.
So, in short, is this a good or bad event: I dunno.
I really hope the leader is as moderate as he claims. He has the historic chance to establish something. Or to fuck shit up even more
He seems like he follows whatever gives him the best position. Projecting moderation to the west is a no-brainer, but he also has to contend with projecting the correct stance to the groups inside Syria and that is likely going to be a much less moderate one.
There is also the outside factors of Russia, Iran, and the US. There are a lot of considerations for all of them and I won't even pretend to predict how they will all act and react, but I do want acknowledge they can and likely will all drastically affect Syria.
Yeah, even if the leader has good intentions, his second or third in command might have less good intentions - and the ability to change position.