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Trump tariffs to push down U.S. growth ‘a great deal' going into 2026, Morgan Stanley warns (www.nbcconnecticut.com)

submitted 3 days ago by RememberTheApollo_ to c/politics

28 comments fedilink hide all child comments

Donald Trump's proposed tariffs will dent U.S. economic growth going into 2026, said Morgan Stanley's chief global economist Seth Carpenter.

President-elect Trump has stated that he intends to impose a blanket tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports, along with extra tariffs ranging from 60% to 100% on goods imported from China. During the September Presidential debate, he described this approach as a means to extract funds from competing countries.

There is also a question of when and how swiftly these tariffs get implemented. In the event that they are enacted all at once, they could result in a "big negative shock" to the economy, Carpenter told CNBC's Sri Jegarajah on the sidelines of Morgan Stanley's annual Asia Pacific Summit in Singapore.

Carpenter, who maintained Morgan Stanley's base case of these tariffs being spread over 2025, said they would lead to higher inflation.

"Then into 2026, we think growth starts to come down a great deal in the U.S. because of those tariffs and some of the other policies," he cautioned.

"Very clear, tariffs push up inflation. Very clear, tariffs are a drag on growth for the U.S., not just for the countries that the tariffs are put on," Carpenter added.

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[–] FabledAepitaph 0 points 3 days ago

I feel you... but without "growth", how will all these children get job, and how will we get promotions?