this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2024
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I've heard the following arguments, I'm ordering them in the way I think they effect an election.
Elon musk buyout and the AI lockdown of social media, and banning of tiktok have all had the effect to fracture democratic/leftist messaging (fault: dems, biden, musk, reddit, people who stayed on x. Affected groups: young people, people who are hard to reach with ads)
The primary election is basically undivertable campaign time for democrats. The lack of primary campaigns and debates means harris had less time to build support and a base (fault biden, affected groups: everyone).
Lack of economic excitement around policies and a shutdown of effective messaging on price gouging in favor of saying a former president will surely destroy the country this time. (fault Harris, donors effect, likely low turnout on younger people)
Lack of demographic excitement around key policies. Latinos: Immigration. Muslims: Israel. (fault biden/harris, effect low turnout in key groups)
Wasteful campaign spending on republicans: Courting Liz Cheney and buying ads to woo republicans at best wasted money and at worst is a giveaway to telecoms who immediately donated it to republicans(fault Harris, effect waste)
Covid provided a boost in 2020 that no longer exists
Mail in voting helped some people vote in 2020. I would say this a tossup however because I do think republicans are able to abuse flaws in mail in systems.
Harris is a woman. I don't buy this one because nonvoters seem disengaged rather than hostile.
8 should be way higher. You can be sexist and not like Trump, and not vote because of it. I'd also add high on that list: rampant and nonstop right wing propoganda in all media formats (news, podcasts, YouTube channels, etc.) with no equivalent left leaning alternative. It should come as no surprise that young men are leaning right when casual mysogony and racism flood the content they watch, even when the content itself isn't strictly political.