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There are three things with Tester, one good, two bad.
Bad - the demographic shift in Montana has been accelerating during COVID. Some people "Yellowstone". Basically a shitload of conservatives from liberal states have flocked to Montana and brought the vibe WAY down. There also used to be a concept in Montana of "vote for the most Montana-est candidate" that has historically led to state-wide offices other than President to be pretty competitive. Before the current, absolutely horrible R Governor (Gianforte), we had a two term Dem governor. Tester is another example. That trend has all but disappeared over the last few elections as people with no ties to Montana, but strong ties to conservative politics, have moved to the state.
The other negative is this is a presidential election year, so the Trumpers might be more motivated to vote.
The one boon Tester has going for him right now is that there is an abortion referendum on the ballot. As we've seen in a few other states, having a yes/no option to protect women's reproductive freedom has been bringing out the votes for democrats. Montana is a small state (~1.2 million people) so it doesn't take much to swing a race one way or the other.
It's pretty sad too because Sheehy and Gianforte are basically incredibly unlikeable. Absolutely vile pieces of trash, and they'll probably win anyway.