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Harris’ post-debate gains sustained in US polls, but Republicans likely to gain Senate control.
(theconversation.com)
this post was submitted on 23 Sep 2024
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Current polling data has Cruz trailing by 1 point, and Scott's lead has fallen to within the margin of error. If either seat is flipped, that changes this article's projected 51/49 Republican senate to a 50/50 senate with the vice president breaking the tie.
You're citing the only poll where Cruz is behind, so if we're talking about polling more broadly that's very much not true. His lead has been fairly consistent in the +3 to +5 range for months. Scott's lead is the same or bigger, again with one polling exception.
For Cruz, I didn't see a newer poll yet when I checked before commenting, looks like that last one was posted today (or they're lying for SEO). Although the survey ends on the same date, so the data itself isn't actually newer.
And most of the other polls go back into August, so while the poll showing Cruz behind could be an outlier, it could also be reflective of a change in the race. We just don't have a lot of good data to work with here. The Morning Consult polls are the largest ones we have, and the only ones to come from the same firm with the same methodology, allowing an apples to apples comparison. That lends at least a little credibility to the idea that Cruz might be in trouble, and it's definitely a close race either way, but I would definitely want more data backing it up before concluding that Cruz is actually losing.
As for Scott, yeah, most polls have him up by 3 or 4, give or take. He's not losing, but he's definitely vulnerable. And with abortion being on the ballot in Florida this year, I know I'd be sweating a little if I were in his position.
All I was getting at is that both candidates are potentially vulnerable, and either losing would prevent the Republicans from taking the senate as the article predicts.
Part of me keeps hoping that there's some kind of systemic right-wing bias of modern polling methodologies, and that as time goes on we can count on the gap between polling and election results to get larger in the leftward direction. Gods what I wouldn't give for a systematic, nationwide trouncing of the GOP like the one Dems got from them in 2010. Instead it seems like we keep getting hope dangled in front of our faces and results are always middling, at best, with the rare exception of a Georgia runoff or an Alabama one-off.
I sure hope you're right that Cruz is in trouble. For all our sakes.
Tim Walz: oh gollie gee, let's burn this fucking filibuster to the ground.