295
Harris widens lead over Trump with boost from women, Hispanics, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
(www.reuters.com)
this post was submitted on 29 Aug 2024
295 points (97.1% liked)
politics
19148 readers
4396 users here now
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
There's a margin of error. They are not worthless. They can also work to create enthusiasm and optimism around a candidate, which, in turn, can prompt people to go vote or to volunteer. Some say it prompts people to say "then I don't have to go vote." I don't believe that.
Cough 2016 cough
You have any proof? If so, I'm happy to stand corrected.
Of course not. Just like you can't prove polls don't ever have a negative impact. But how else do you explain most polls putting Clinton in a healthy lead and then voter turnout being much lower than it should have in an election where Donald fucking Trump was an option? If people weren't comfortable with the lead seen in polls I really think the voter turnout would've been record setting.
edit: admits to not having proof but lays out logic ==> downvoted to hell. Fucking internet people...
Clinton won the popular vote by the amount that polls predicted. She lost the EC due to razor thin margins in some battleground states, which were well within the margin of error of polls in those states.
Everyone thinks 2016 was a miss for polls, it was not. It was a miss for forecasting models that had Clinton at 90%+ chances of winning while her numbers in many battleground states were really tossups.
There were definitely polls that tried to account for the EC, yet nearly everyone was still flat-footed when Trump won. I don't see how the attitude should be "people interpreted the polls wrong!" if basically everyone did so.
We don't tell users they have to type perfectly formed commands in order to open a webpage, and then if they don't, format their hard drives. We build systems that try to assume users will not understand the underlying concepts and yet we still accommodate them. I see no reason that polls shouldn't be designed with the same ethos. Until they are, I will assume anything a poll tells me is quite likely to be misleading.
And yes I understand statistics enough to know that polls were never meant to tell me exactly what the results will be, so please don't lecture me on that...
It was a very difficult world before Trump. Everyone knows exactly what Trump entails now.
I am struggling to understand what that has to do with this. I am behind on sleep, so maybe if you expand, I will get it?
I do believe that polling showing Hillary with a huge lead helped Trump, but I also don't believe that would happen again because he's a known quantity now.