8
Harris is 3% up on Trump in national polling, what do you think the polling will look like in November?
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this post was submitted on 26 Aug 2024
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+8.
People who dismiss or disregard polling are idiots, which is like, most of the people who respond to posts related to polling.
50/50 nationally for "Democratic candidate" versus Trump is +5.
+10 is "clearly winning, but still a chance" for the D.
+15 is blowout, blue wave.
Harris has that potential but her missteps are going to cost her with the only donors that matter, the people who donate their vote. However, she's been like, uncannily savvy with regards to most of her maneuvers. I think she sees her'self boxed in on Gaza so her answer is "steady as she goes". Problem there is that Israel is specifically stoking a regional war to put D's into this position. So while it is a damned if you do/ damned if you don't when it comes to pulling Netanyahu's leash, she's doubly damned is the US "don't" in this case. Regardless, she's been incredibly strong otherwise.
I have her at 65% to win right now if you are playing the odds. I expect her to be at 85% the day of. If she can get to +10 to +15 range, she bumps into the 90%-97% to win range. This is of course for the stochastic models. Process based models tell a different story, which comes almost entirely down to Israel/ Gaza. Basically she can't win with out MI/ MN/ WI, and enough uncommitted put their number up to prevent a D from winning those states. The DNC not allowing a Gazan to at least speak seems like SUCH an unforced error, it seems almost unlikely to have come out of the Harris camp. Its not clear to me why or how you would make such a stupid error when you NEEED to lock those states up. Anyways, process based models are closer to 50/50 for MI/ WI because of this issue. This also assumes if she doesn't take MI/ WI she also hasn't taken GA/ NC.
Anyways. +8 nationally is where I have her being on election day, which is a 85% chance to win.
Tell me you lack reading comprehension without telling me you lack reading comprehension.