this post was submitted on 22 Aug 2024
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[–] [email protected] 66 points 3 months ago (3 children)

While the priors seemed to suggest it could float, the update step showed that was an outlier.

I’ll show myself the door.

[–] xantoxis 19 points 3 months ago

No please stay, this joke was the only reason I clicked into the comments

[–] [email protected] 17 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 5 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

Hard to answer that since I don't know which door was picked first.

Then again, I'm taking 3. Goats are cool.

[–] [email protected] -2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

In search of a new car, the player chooses a door, say 1. The game host then opens one of the other doors, say 3, to reveal a goat and offers to let the player switch from door 1 to door 2.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 months ago (1 children)

Yeah, duh. You are supposed to switch doors, everybody knows that at this point, but the picture doesn't show which door was initially picked.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 3 months ago

Yeah I know, that's why I'm telling you now which door was picked (door #1 according to the caption on the Wikipedia page I ~~stole~~ borrowed this image from) 🙂

[–] merari42 9 points 3 months ago

At least you only have to sink one Bayesian Superyacht to update your priors. To get at population parameters you would need to sink many Frequentist Superyachts