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He's a stopped clock on this one (mostly because it's a really safe bet to make; market crashes, he gloats, market doesn't crash in the near future, everyone forgets he said it).
There is a downturn of some sort coming when the AI bubble bursts (it will, and fairly soon), it's just a question of how severe and how contained it will be.
NVidia will correct right away, but what corrects after that?
I'm curious, what makes you so confident on Nvidia? I'm not expecting them to crash and die or anything, but I can't see them ever regaining their current (extremely over inflated) stock price.
I wasn't clear - when i say NVidia will correct I mean it will pop back down - the current valuation is stupidly high. They won't die, but people will act like the sky is falling the moment NVidia stock finally corrects back down. What that will trigger is anybody's guess.
Sorry, total misunderstanding on my part. I completely forgot that that's what "correct" means in this context.
To your point, the demand for compute infrastructure is absurdly high right now, because AI has absurd compute needs, so everything attached to that space suffers. The small, dedicated providers - mostly guys like Riot and Northern Data who pivoted from crypto - probably collapse entirely. Microsoft takes a hit, as does anyone in the GPU space like Intel and AMD. Intel are already in rough shape so investor confidence isn't high. That said, none of those companies will suffer lasting damage, they all have strong fundamentals. Apple and Amazon may suffer minor splash damage. Meta probably also takes a hit thanks to their investments in AI, as does Google. Both of those could be interesting. Google is in a very dangerous place right now for investors with the antitrust loss. They can probably ride it out on appeals until they get a government that will agree to dismiss the ruling, like Microsoft has repeatedly done in the past, but with the possibility of 8 years of Harris coming up they might not be so lucky (God, I hope). AI hype collapsing might amplify existing concerns. Google is the kind of company that's so big and entrenched it's hard to see anything seriously spooking investors, but this combination might do it. Meta has soared over the last year, and is certainly overvalued right now. Again, they're an entrenched tech giant who can normally ride out anything, but Zuck has been making some wild plays lately, like his massive failed metaverse investment (Good job naming the company after that so no one can forget). Their big AI push blowing up as well would be a second strike. That said, I doubt two strikes is enough to spook anyone who is already OK with a company whose CEO basically cannot be removed. Like, that risk is priced in.