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https://t.me/TCH_channel/147459
The Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed the bridge over the Seim River in the Kursk region of russia - Enemy media
The bridge over the Seim River in the Glushkovsky District of the Kursk region was destroyed by HIMARS strikes according to enemy media.
Part of the district is now cut off, including Tyotkino, Popova-Lezhachi, Volfino and 27 other settlements.
Previous attack by HIMARS
All these updates are incredible, I mean it's amazing what the AFU has really shocked the entire system with this invasion/incursion, but ..... and I know I sound like a wet blanket bummer guy, however are they going to be able to hold this territory with the 100k Russian Army attacking in Ukraine proper, seems as if the Ukrainian Russian Expeditionary Force is seeking to do as much damage and cause as much embarrassment to Putin as they can, but to what end. It all just feels like prelude to a massacre, which being of the people of Masada, I get wanting to strike a blow before the end, but I hope it turns out better for the Ukrainian forces than it did for us versus the Romans.
Honestly it don't think it matters much if they hold it in the long run. Ukraine isn't likely to be trying to annex it, and it forces Russia to divert resources from other fronts to handle it. If Ukraine can make retaking it very costly then even if Russia succeeds, Russia has had to spend a whole bunch of lives and materiel to gain literally zero Ukrainian land
Embarrassing Putin, opening up a new front and gaining a valuable piece of territory for potential negotiations for the return of annexed Ukrainian territory.
Not to mention the morale boost to Ukrainian troops.
Embarrassing Putin at home cannot be overstated. People want their government to provide security and allow them to live and work, so this is disrupting daily life and making the Russian people nervous.
I hope it turns out that way, it's thoroughly enjoyable to watch, but it's felt like watching a suicide run
War is just a series of suicide runs.
tru that
This is far from the "end" for the Kursk incursion. I expect Ukraine to hold the territory for quite some time as the war within their own borders has shown that fortified trenches and defensive lines eventually lead to static frontlines. These gains were possible because their force is highly mobile in barely defended areas. Russia can't put up any defenses close to the invading force because they would be in artillery range and have to put up their lines way beyond what Ukraine currently controls.
We'll see if the Russians eventually resort to human wave tactics in Kursk, which seems to be the way they approach fortified lines. But even then it will take them a long time to make any progress and they currently don't have the manpower needed for such assaults.
let's hope ukraine has better luck at recruiting for military service than they have been experiencing of late
The AFU is very selective in what it is targeting and the initial attack was to limit Russian gas exports and starve them of money. Sudzha is exactly the point that they needed to hold to do that and they did it with surprisingly low number of troops. Russia still has to move troops into the area and the quality that they are sending means there is little expected chance of escalation for now. There is minimal air and ground assets being assigned to that front, as they are scattered across multiple other fronts in Ukraine.
Why would they massacre?
For Ukranians the change is that the Russians will be levelling their own towns here.
If they can capture several 100's of conscripts the Ukranians can trade them for their own people.
And lastly, the whole talking point "accept the realities on the ground" and "negotiate for peace" is dead.. because we'll.. Russia will not negotiate or accept the realities on the ground. Maybe Ukraine can offer to trade the Kursk territory for the restoration of the 1991 borders.
It's more to destroy infrastructure and make incursions into or out of the area much harder essentially giving Russia a choice to either take back the area and have a front separated from Russia proper by water with no bridges or give up the area until you can build up a force to push back.
Either way the front in that area is pushed farther away from Ukrainian territory for the foreseeable future.
why do russians do any of the insanely evil shit they do to their own people, over and over again through millenia?
if you think being inside russia is going to stop putin from a Dresden 2.0, you're seeing him differently than I am. eventually the meat wave will arrive. if they're not going to eventually "negotiate for peace" which i also think is foolish to believe will happen while vlad is still breathing, then the ukrainians are going to have to fight it out with the entire russian army, right now there is no general conscription, but should ukraine hold russian territory in russia proper long enough, you can bet your fucking pelmini there will be.
so, yeah, that's why i fear massacre for the expeditionary forces of ukraine in russia
Well from a Ukrainian point of view, this is the gist that keeps on giving. They already know how to trade territory for time.. and now it's not even their territory.
For the Russians though:
Then about the "hot" fronts:
Manpower is not the biggest issue here, materiel is. Manpower they could mobilize, but I doubt they can magically make more afv's tanks and other stuff appear.. if they had more they would use them in the Donbas, they are all in by now.
And finally, how to approach retaking your own land while trying to maintain it is an SMO.
It seems like Ukraine though this through, I hope they can pull it off.
The AFU has created a situation that Russia cannot ignore or back away from. They simply have to send the men and equipment to try and force the AFU out. If they don't the AFU can, and likely will, continue to gobble up Russian territory and that will eventually impact Russian logistics enough that they won't be able to continue to fight in Ukraine.
Russia has already tried responding with dribs and drabs and the AFU simply chews them up; that means in order to successfully counter and push the AFU out Russia is going to have to show up with mass. Many thousands of men and lots of materials all at once, which will make a big juicy target as they try to enter the battlespace.
If Ukraine can get the necessary equipment into the theater, and so far it looks like they can / are, they will absolutely CLOBBER the massed forces that Russia has no choice but send. When I say "clobber" I'm talking about the destruction that Rocket Artillery, Howitzers, and Jet Fighters could have delivered early in the invasion when Russia was sending miles long convoys straight down highways.
Think "Highway of Death" between Kuwait and Iraq from 1990.
Dunno if that will happen but the way Ukraine is setting this up it's within the realm of possibility.