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I know we are all happy Ukraine taking land like this, having some military success. I don't want to be a downer, but it's also a liability taking land you have no desire to hold. Sure I understand all the benefits of this, absolutely. It's great success. I just hope it translates into frontline changes where it matters more.
Any resource sent by Russia to defend this region is one less resource being used in more important areas of the battlefield, that's reason enough to take it when the cracks were discovered.
Absolutely! The whole narrative has already changed. I think the slow and confused response from Russia as they are struggling to find resources to stop this incursion is what speaks the loudest. ... but, at some point they will find those resources. If there is no progress anywhere inspite of this?
They hope Putin will overreact and send "too many" troops there and then quickly retreat with minimal losses.
Apparently, the Ukrainians are surprised how far they made it, too. So maybe they hoped for a small distraction, got whatever this is and now are just winging it.
You don't know what their plans are or what they "hoped" for. The truth it, Russia is sending missiles on Kharkhiv from Kursk. If nothing else, making it harder for Russians to shoot onto Ukrainian territory is a win in and of itself.
Russia may be forced to remove troops from ukraine to liberate russian land. I don't see how it's bad for ukraine
It's good, it's great for Ukraine if they do. If Russia finds resources somewhere else, this could end up being a pointless excursion.
If Russia had those resources they would already be using them to end a "special military operation" that has now been ongoing for nearly three years..
Maybe. On the other hand, we have seen that Russians are slow to learn and adapt, but in the end they do.
Everyone learns as time goes, Russians AND Ukrainians. Everyone has to adapt their strategies sooner or later. It's the reality of war.
What if Ukraine invades Russia and overthrows Putin? And established a better government with interest in caring for the people, nuclear de-escalation, and better foreign relations?
I know it's never going to happen, but imagine how great that would be? St. Petersburg isn't that far into Russia...
Yes, but that is a fantasy. Not because I think they couldn't. I think they could blitz them and find themselves in Moscow for sure. But the regime in Russia will go nuclear before they let Ukraine come.
winter is coming
Do I say this in a Russian or English accent?
Given just how badly both the Russian army and the state itself is led, Ukraine holding onto Kursk indefinitely may just work.
Speaking as an armchair general, Russia is like a noob who is playing a real time strategy game for the first time; not knowing what logistics is, morale, intelligence and no doctrine. Russia is throwing bodies at the problem-- like seeing everything as nails and hammering down. Putin did not even have any plans whatsoever after the initial invasion of Ukraine. The invasion plans were actually set by the Russian internal intelligence agency, the FSB; an organisation with no formal military discipline. As we speak, the defense of Kursk is handed to FSB. It is as if Putin had not learnt his lesson! It says more that he is paranoid and trusts his de-facto personal guards to handle things than the army. The whole ordeal is getting desperate for him.
Russia is using this territory to shoot missiles into Kharkhiv. At the very least, it's creating a "buffer zone" to make it harder to shoot into Ukrainian territory. Believe me, the Ukrainian military knows way more than we do and are at a way better position to make decisions than you and I are.
Well, that's not entirely true is it. This territory is not known to have been a place missiles. Plus, Ukraine will not be able to take enough land to even make it a buffer zone for artillery, let alone missiles.
This land is a liability. You need many troops to defend it that could be somewhere else. That's a fact. The is only a question Wether the pros outweigh the cons.
Of course we don't know more than Ukrainian commands. We are speculating and talking. But they make mistakes as well. In war there is a game of probabilities and risks.
I share this concern. I posted the other day to this news, "Okay, now what?" And I got a lot of responses about short term benefits but I don't see this as being part of any effective overall strategy. I really hope I'm wrong and I just can't see it.
If nothing else, it makes it harder for Russians to shoot missiles into Kharkhiv, as they're being fired from Kursk. Believe me, the Ukrainian military know way more than any of us do and are at a much better position to make calls as to what is and isn't an "effective strategy".