this post was submitted on 02 Aug 2024
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There is absolutely no way intel is going under any time soon. They may drop more but it's almost certain that they will recover.
I don't understand a valuation that puts them under AMD given how poor amd's market share is in the gpu market (which intel is now a new valid competitor in for the budget space) alongside the fact that intel's cpu market share is higher than AMD by a large margin.
I'm saying all this as a huge AMD fan. I have a 5800x3d and a 6800xt. I made our work standard laptop be amd based as I set the standards for my organization in my work role. I know my choice is the minority choice. Even in datacenter intel has an overwhelming lead.
It's because the stock market is closer to a casino than a place where fair valuations of businesses are made.
Also, market cap is just the latest trade price times the total number of shares. It doesn't mean that anyone is willing to buy or sell the entire business for that amount, just that some shares were traded at a price that extrapolates to that.
It's kinda like getting an A on your first assignment in grade 1 and assuming that means you're a straight A student and will maintain that until you finish your doctorate. Or getting an F and assuming you might as well just drop out.
The closest thing to reality market cap really says is that investors who are making current trades believe that AMD will surpass Intel at some point. Or that they aren't comparing either company directly to the other and just go by feeling plus the price history. "I feel more confident in AMD today, therefore the price should be higher than it was yesterday. I feel less confident in Intel today, therefore the price should be lower than it was yesterday." It doesn't even really matter if yesterday's price was accurate, it's all just relative to itself and fed by fear and greed.
Preach. I'm just worried for when nvidia pops. The grumblings about the machine learning fad are starting to happen but that's a company that is incredibly likely to lose 80% of revenue in 5 years once businesses see how the huge investments flop.
There's some strange belief that chat bots being semi-coherent is going to turn into true AI and take over all the white collar jobs. The more popular chatbots become the poorer the data quality will be. It's inevitable that all the bots posting on all the social media sites will poison the datasets especially as more and more turn to chatbots to generate content.
Peoples imaginations are running wild. I think if 2% of the use cases pan out it will be a wild success but ML is not new and entire divisions have been scrapped for failing to turn a profit (looking at Alexa, for sure.) When the pop happens the drop will be so significant the ripples may cause a recession all by itself.
How is Intel's GPU marketshare any better... Last I heard they were selling their chips at a loss
They are not doing better in the gpu marketshare. They are a new challenger in that space and are no where near getting the lead. The point I was making is that they are just getting into that space, and if they are successful at chipping away at nvidia's giant high margin market share they can very possibly make a ton of money in that space.
Their GPUs however are fairly good price/performance for consumers, meaning they are building market share in that space. Like any business starting out at something they are losing money to gain market share. That's how capitalism works today. You lose money to gain popularity until you get so much market share you can turn screws to make significant profits.
Intel's bread and butter is CPUs. They are the majority market share in the highly lucrative desktop cpu, ~~mobile~~ laptop cpu and datacenter cpu space.
edit: clarification, mobile I mean laptop. I don't think intel is in the cellular phone space?
SRIOV in the datacenter without restrictive / Prohibitive licensing costs
I thought qualcomm was the majority market share in the mobile cpu space?
Good catch, I meant laptop. Most end user systems provided today are laptops for the last several companies i've worked for.