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The practical answer is 3-4% above to counteract the right-wing effect of the electoral college. Yes, it all matters on what states she wins.
The theoretical answer is that Kamala could get less votes, just like Trump did in 2016, and still "win." It's not practical because the swing states are more conservative than the median population of the country as a whole, which means it's extremely unlikely those swing states will vote for Kamala while Trump gets more votes elsewhere.
The places you need to watch are Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and to a lesser extent Ohio, Minnesota and Florida. The 538 polls will give you a sense of where those states are leading, and you can see different maps here. polling is imperfect, and frankly I can't take the anxiety of watching that data day-to-day.
I wish (as an Ohioan) we could deliver Ohio for 2024. Maybe if Kamala pushes the abortion and democracy point well enough and reassure gun owners that the federal government isn't going to come for their guns.
There's also a good chance that what can only be describe as the "fuck all the politicians that won't listen to us about drawing maps" gerrymandering amendment is on the ballot for November ... and there's a solid chance that gets passed ending ~2 decades of the GOP stranglehold on Ohio representation in the US House.