Progressive Politics

Not to defend dems strategy but look at 2010 for a prime example of what my post above was talking about. ACA is exactly what young voters wanted, what dems pushed for in 2008 and was exactly what GOP ran against in 2010. And in 2010, young voters didn't show up, so all the congressional members who pushed it through got unseated by conservatives eager to rip it apart and stonewall anything else Obama did.

So yes, my point stands. It's because young voters do not vote, especially not in midterm years between presidential elections that we aren't getting politicians who appeal to the under 50-60 block. Because even when Dems go all out and give them everything they want, they still don't show up at the polls to maintain momentum, and Dems lose a ton of ground. So can you blame them for making the choice between getting once in a generation power plays to change the status quo then go right back to letting GOP rip everything apart piecemeal and load the courts with conservative judges, or pick safer bet candidates who appeal to the ones who regularly turn out to vote even if progress only comes in bite sized changes they can slip through with aid of moderates and independents?

The math is there, you just have to look at the entire equation. GET OUT AND VOTE. EVERY ELECTION.

Not really? The highest turnout for under 25s over the last 58 years was... in 2020 (~50%), when it was literally the same matchup . And that's still significantly lower than other age groups (62% 25-44, 71% 45+).

There was a small bump in 2008 (assuming you mean Obama), up to 49%. But in 2004 when John Kerry was the candidate the turnout was about 47% so not like. A huge change. And nobody remembers John Kerry.

Looking across the pond, in 2019 when Corbyn was head of the labor party and ran on a lot of lovely progressive issues, the turnout under 24s (they use slightly different brackets) was... Just over 50%

It kinda seems like young people just don't vote at very high rates, period. So it doesn't make a ton of sense to focus on them over other groups if you actually want to get elected and hold power.

No, then change simply starts automatically as the party appeals to the remaining voters. There's not some special dynamic happening there, it's just that simple: politicians want power, they're going to do whatever gives them the most power.

So the fun thing is that you get older every year. So does everyone around you. What seems to actually happen is that as younger voters age they realize that they should actually vote* -- in 2000 32% of the 18-24 bracket voted. By 2020 those people are at the upper end of the 25-44 bracket [the census has wonky ranges], and 55% of them voted.

This trend has been going on back as far as there is data. There is no 'until'.

And if those numbers seem really low to you - yeah they are. For comparison about 70% of people 64+ have voted every presidential election year, back to like the 80s. And it's even worse for midterm years! In 2022 people 64+ voted at about a 2.5:1 rate to people under 25.

*in fairness there's also the factor that as people age they tend to have more stable lives, more ability to take time off, etc. And there are states that DO make voting hard on purpose (notably all governed by the same party). Reasons why supporting early voting, mail in, mandatory time off, etc. Are all also very important. But in much of the US it's not particularly difficult and people still don't do it.

the best thing biden has going for him is that he's not trump. and that's not sustainable.

Uh, no. No he wasn’t.