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The tories lost, Stamer won because tory voters split between Lib Dem’s, Reform and other.
You listen to the liberals backing labor's change they'll say it's because labor picked up Tory voters in key races while losing voters in "safe" races while cherry picking results to demonstrate.
I've yet to be convinced of that line of thinking though and I'm much of the same opinion as you. Nobody elects a status quo party when shit is going south like it is right now. The Tories lost because they couldn't help but put up shit policies. The neo-blairites will lose because they kept those shit policies.