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Idk. We've choked China out of AI supremacy. All of our mega GDP makers rely heavily on TSMC. Heavily.
I mean, entirely.
Like Biden throwing billions at chip manufacturers. Tensions in the South China Sea are ridiculous. The stakes have never been higher, and it's right in what they see as their back yard. Taking down TSMC cripples the US economy, causes a worldwide kerfuffle (especially with tensions from Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Palestine, Israel/Iran, US/Israel, US/Ukraine, US/Iran relationships.
I get what you mean that you've been thinking that for a decade. Ive been seeing it for as long. But it's gotten real with the AI bubble and tech sanctions. If it doesn't burst before 2030, there's no way China doesn't act. Frankly, I'm betting on less than 6 months.
All of China’s actions that you have described, I see as a dissipation of the united effort against Taiwan. Like I said, I’m not saying it won’t happen, I’m just saying it won’t happen really soon. China actually gives a huge shit about their international reputation. And they don’t want to that damaged fighting a war they can’t win. They will wait to move on Taiwan until they can be reasonably assured of a victory. And that won’t happen anytime soon.
China is also quite adept at fighting economic wars (like the US), and that’s what they’re going to do with AI. Just with money and sanctions and diplomatic bullshittery.
Id put money on it happening before 2031. Like lots of money.
But Xi outright told Biden he and to invade Taiwan. This year. Verbatim. I guess I'm saying he'll lose a lot of public respect. Not that that's as valued there as it is in the US, but it's still reflect globally very weak and that's just not what global superpowers do. They don't make clear threats empty.
2031? Maybe. If the Ukraine war ends soon, it would give them a couple of years before they started up their bullshit. So, yeah, maybe. (Edit 2) I’d say it’s much more likely of Russia walks away with favorable terms, even less likely should Russia end up with an embarrassing loss…
But the stuff with AI it’s not some thing they could win with their military. Not even by taking over Taiwan (which I’m not convinced they can). Economic pressure that they can weild certainly would be more likely to help them achieve their goals. It just takes a lot longer.
Edit:
Oh, yes they do. All the time. China is a lot more talk than they are action, and they always have been. That’s why I am skeptical about them invading Taiwan anytime soon.
I put a hard barrier past 2030 because of the China Reunification thing. It's a big thing for Xi. If he doesn't attempt he'll look like a no-balls fearful leader, or something. Idk.
And I say 2024 because he balls'd up around Xmas 2023 and said, as I mentioned, verbatim, "We will invade Taiwan this (next) year"
You’re not wrong in your reasoning, I’m just more reserved in my speculation.
I guess we’ll just have to wait and see
Agreed and same toward you. Apologies if I came off as dismissive.
I think we felt the same in probably 2022. I think the recent tech supremacy race and the weird things like the US ordering Apple closing up shop in China, ordering all US companies (Nvidia) to not sell them the good stuff, and the efforts to separate specifically Chinese nationals from US higher education programs that delve into high end tech stuff is... Telling. And then... Shit like this?!
I won't ignore the possibility of propaganda creating the divergence in where we probably agreed 2 years ago and where I am now. But I feel there's enough economic proof and to me, historically it's always seemed like money talks.
But I digress. Agree to disagree. I'll be happy if I'm wrong lol.
It’s nice to be able to have a discussion where both people disagree politely.
Thanks for the pleasure!
Most welcome, and you the same!
I've been looking at it through the lens of this obscure joke from an old David Cross standup back in like 2003. Sad how relevant some of it still is. Highly recommend the whole special. It's aged great. Not sure if that playlist is in the correct order, so... Tough sell. :)
Good stuff, David Cross
Then we got the leaks saying the Chinese Military is Fubared by corruption down to the warehouse workers.
Russia could at least limp into Donbas when their Kiev assault disintegrated. If China tries to invade Taiwan and their missiles don't launch, it will be a stupidly expensive, deadly, embarrassment. Just ships and planes littering the ocean floor.
Xhi needs to be confident that his navy won't get pulled into Taipei ports by tugboat like Russian Tanks in the cornfields.
If you start following the news coming out of the tensions in the South China seas, you'll see that China is indeed confident despite the US's enormous presence/teaming up with Japan to protect Taiwan...