this post was submitted on 01 Jun 2024
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The timing of all those things has been carefully selected by billions of people. Timing is already super important to humanity for other reasons.
There is value in the schedule arrangement we have, which is why there is already sufficient demand to have different electric prices at different times and people still pay it.
The schedule we have arranged contains value. Demand shifting means getting people to do things at times other than they naturally would choose to.
We can’t talk about things like this like they’re free. There’s a big, real, not easily measurable cost to changing the times of day we use energy.
Our solution is to serve us, not the other way around.
Some shifts genuinely are free, though. Wholesale prices for electricity follow a pronounced "duck curve," and drop to near zero (or even negative) in areas where there's a substantial solar base, during the day at certain parts of the year. People will shift their demand for non-time-sensitive consumption (heating, cooling, charging of devices/EVs, batched/scheduled jobs) in response to basic price signals. If a substantial amount of future demand is going to be from data centers performing batched/scheduled jobs, like training AI models or encoding video files, a lot of that demand can be algorithmically shifted.
There are already companies out there intentionally arbitraging the price differences by time of day to invest in large scale storage. That's an expensive activity, that they've determined is worth doing because there's profit to be made at scale.
At household scale, individuals can do that too.
Put another way, we shouldn't talk about current pricing models where every kilowatt hour costs the same as if that arrangement is free.
Plus, the timing of consumption already does naturally tend to follow the timing of solar generation. Most people are more active during the day than at night, and work hours reflect that distribution. Overcapacity in solar can go a long way towards meeting demand when it naturally happens.
There are ways to get demand shift working with residential, but I doubt enough residences would participate.
A lot comes down to smart grid, and integrating high draw appliances that don't always need electricity right now. Like fridges and water heaters. Some may come down to residential storage systems charging during off-peak and being used during peak. And using EVs as an extension of residential storage.
We could also get not so used to expecting a specific level of comfort. Honestly how uncomfortable will we be if the AC or heater doesn't kick in for 10 extra minutes or so, when the clouds part over the huge solar array 500 miles away and there's going to be excess.