this post was submitted on 22 May 2024
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Egyptian intelligence quietly changed the terms of a ceasefire proposal that Israel had already signed off on earlier this month, ultimately scuttling a deal that could have released Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and set a pathway to temporarily end the fighting in Gaza, according to three people familiar with the discussions.

The ceasefire agreement that Hamas ended up announcing on May 6 was not what the Qataris or the Americans believed had been submitted to Hamas for a potential final review, the sources said.

The changes made by Egyptian intelligence, the details of which have not been previously reported, led to a wave of anger and recrimination among officials from the US, Qatar and Israel, and left ceasefire talks at an impasse.

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[–] [email protected] 8 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (1 children)

Well, specifically what do you mean by that?

As a strategy, I'd say that it hasn't worked. I haven't been following the conflict closely, but the only use of outside hard power that I off-the-cuff recall seeing has been:

  • Some rockets out of Lebanon.

  • Some long-range weapons that Iran fired -- some of which were shot down by the US, France, UK, Jordan, and Israel.

Like, Israel's caught some negative press, sure, but if you're Hamas, you aren't gonna start a war that you're gonna lose in hard power terms with the goal of getting some words.

And a lot of that criticism, I believe, isn't related to what Hamas would probably want to see. Hamas wants Israel to stop existing. That's not what is being talked about.

In the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, Arab residents of the region tried to eject Jewish settlers, and Jews took the opportunity to kick Arabs out from a lot of the territory entirely. I think that the meaningful criticism mostly surrounds the potential for Israel doing something like a repeat, but involving the Gaza Strip -- if you've got a war that the other guy kicked off, you've got some political impetus to rewrite the situation to be more to your liking. I mean, Hamas doesn't want the conversation to be over whether it's acceptable for Israel to force Gaza residents out into Egypt. That's not a situation where Hamas stands to gain in terms of having the war at all. They want to win something, not have pressure limiting how badly they wind up losing.