322
US home prices have soared 47% so far this decade, outpacing all of the growth seen in the 1990s and 2010s
(www.businessinsider.com)
this post was submitted on 14 May 2024
322 points (98.2% liked)
News
23378 readers
2766 users here now
Welcome to the News community!
Rules:
1. Be civil
Attack the argument, not the person. No racism/sexism/bigotry. Good faith argumentation only. This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban. Do not respond to rule-breaking content; report it and move on.
2. All posts should contain a source (url) that is as reliable and unbiased as possible and must only contain one link.
Obvious right or left wing sources will be removed at the mods discretion. We have an actively updated blocklist, which you can see here: https://lemmy.world/post/2246130 if you feel like any website is missing, contact the mods. Supporting links can be added in comments or posted seperately but not to the post body.
3. No bots, spam or self-promotion.
Only approved bots, which follow the guidelines for bots set by the instance, are allowed.
4. Post titles should be the same as the article used as source.
Posts which titles don’t match the source won’t be removed, but the autoMod will notify you, and if your title misrepresents the original article, the post will be deleted. If the site changed their headline, the bot might still contact you, just ignore it, we won’t delete your post.
5. Only recent news is allowed.
Posts must be news from the most recent 30 days.
6. All posts must be news articles.
No opinion pieces, Listicles, editorials or celebrity gossip is allowed. All posts will be judged on a case-by-case basis.
7. No duplicate posts.
If a source you used was already posted by someone else, the autoMod will leave a message. Please remove your post if the autoMod is correct. If the post that matches your post is very old, we refer you to rule 5.
8. Misinformation is prohibited.
Misinformation / propaganda is strictly prohibited. Any comment or post containing or linking to misinformation will be removed. If you feel that your post has been removed in error, credible sources must be provided.
9. No link shorteners.
The auto mod will contact you if a link shortener is detected, please delete your post if they are right.
10. Don't copy entire article in your post body
For copyright reasons, you are not allowed to copy an entire article into your post body. This is an instance wide rule, that is strictly enforced in this community.
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
Almost four years.
Anyone that thinks this isn't a bubble is a moron.
It's not a bubble, it's much much worse. You only hear of it in whispers among the financial world. It's stagflation. Japan seen this story before, they call it their lost decade that has been going on for nearly half a century. It's when you deficit spend like crazy to prop up the economy and that leads to high inflation and stubbornly high costs (IE: Housing). It's coupled with basically no wage growth and high underemployment. Does any of this sound familiar? It buried Japan, it might bury USA.
This spike in Inflation isn’t that high in the grand scheme of things and we have both historically low unemployment and higher than average labor force participation.
The current situation doesn’t resemble stagflation.
Actually it exactly resembles stagflation. It's one of the reasons I said underemployment and not unemployment. During the 90s, Japan's inflation rate was around 3% and they couldn't get it under 2%. Sound familiar?
https://www.in2013dollars.com/japan/inflation/1990#:~:text=The%20yen%20had%20an%20average%20inflation%20rate%20of,82.953%25%20of%20what%20it%20could%20buy%20back%20then.
The other part was low unemployment, but mostly government jobs that didn't do anything. But it did create historically low unemployment and higher than average labor force participation.
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14332/#:~:text=The%20%E2%80%98lost%20decade%E2%80%99%20in%20Japan%20was%20a%20period,when%20it%20reached%20a%20historical%20maximum%20of%205.5%25.
What you are seeing is USA doing exactly what Japan did in the 90s, which is have a target inflation rate of 2% that they can't reach and hiding the high unemployment numbers with underemployment in crappy jobs.
Edit: just look at this rocketing government employment.
https://usafacts.org/reports/2021/government-10-k/part-i/item-1-purpose-and-function-of-our-government-general/employees/#:~:text=As%20of%20the%20dates%20shown%20below%2C%20there%20were,local%20government%20employees%2C%20of%20whom%2023%25%20work%20part-time.
More than doubled in a decade.
I appreciate you providing sources but even your sources don’t align with your claims. Per your source, Japan averaged less than 1% per year inflation during the 90s.
Your source on government employment also doesn’t show it doubling in the last ten years. Through my own searching I’m seeing government employment dropping per capita over the last twenty years.
Ultimately, it doesn’t matter. I don’t personally see the signs of stagflation and I would encourage readers of these comments to analyze the data themselves and not blindly accept your claims.
No one in real-estate is doubting it being a bubble. The issue is how it will resolve. Not all bubbles burst. The question is if this one is going to simply "cool down" until the market rate catches up (lol, pipedream) or if the propping up will simply plateau it and it will level off for some years for the market rate the then catch up (almost the same thing, still a fucking joke when they try to justify this). Or there is the option of the bubble popping, it then it is the question of how deep the market cut will go, how fast it will rebound, how far up it will rebound, and if it is still worth it to buy now (what some are saying is that it is still worth doing the current fuckery and still profitable even with a bubble burst).
Even if it burts, what's stopping investment companies from just gobbling up whatevers left and then repeat the same cycle?
Exactly this. The 2008 bubble bursting helped investors buy cheap. I was trying to buy in 2012 and kept getting under-bid and losing to cash offers from people who just let the house sit empty for a year or two before selling at a profit. The only way I was able to buy back then was finding a house owned by Fannie, which legally could only be sold to someone who lived in it as their primary residence.
The amount of money being stockpiled in the US (and around the world) is insane, so any major drop in housing prices means more investors will just buy it all up. And related: that's also why I don't see the bubble bursting. There are still people buying at insane prices with relatively high interest rates right now. There might be a slow down or a slight drop when those people finally get homes, but the bubble in 2008 was from subprime mortgages (not nearly as much of a thing now) and banks not lending (not a thing now). Even if banks got scared and stopped lending, the cash offers are still coming.
it isn't a bubble because there literally isn't enough housing.
the housing we are building isn't keeping up with demand, so prices will continue to go up.