pigeonberry

A couple of articles.

"WSJ News Exclusive | A Rare Look Into the Finances of Elon Musk’s Secretive SpaceX" is paywalled.

"CNBC: SpaceX reportedly turned a profit in the first quarter" quoting from the Wall Street Journal, supra.

The Journal reports that SpaceX posted a first-quarter profit of $55 million on revenue of $1.5 billion. For the full year 2022, Elon Musk's rocket company posted a loss of $559 million on revenue of $4.6 billion, the report says. It roughly halved losses while doubling what it brought in during 2021.

SpaceX tallied $5.2 billion in total expenses last year, up from $3.3 billion the year earlier, according to the Journal.

u/tendie_time provided what seems to be a vertaim quotation of the entire article at

https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/15u0cua/wsj_news_exclusive_a_rare_look_into_the_finances/jwnae4j/

Description there:

Jared Isaacman made space history in 2021 with the first all-civilian mission to orbital space. Now, he’s looking to do it 3 more times through the Polaris Program. Isaacman joins Morgan from CNBC Out East to discuss preparations for the maiden mission, his company Shift4’s partnership with SpaceX, and much more.

I didn't listen to it, so I'll just give a couple of quotes from u/rosswi88 in The Other Place.

Isaacman: "Still hoping for the end of this year, but I expect [Polaris Dawn] will probably slip into next year. This should be expected - it's a test and development program... brand new space suit making good progress."

“The suit that we are testing out -- the evolution of it someday could very well be worn by people that are walking on the Moon or Mars.”

“We are giving a fair amount of thought to Polaris Two… there were some discussions on space Twitter about opportunities with NASA to potentially work on giving Hubble a new lease life and there are a lot of important things being discussed at NASA, but hopefully they’ll get around to this proposal and perhaps we'll have a pretty exciting Polaris Two to follow.”

It's an aerial video, and part of the process that I hadn't seen before.

Marcus House rexed? ... retweeted? ... a couple of quick videos by Jerry Pike Photo. These were of a droneship, and we don't often see those.

Video 1 on Twitter

Video 2 on Twitter

Linktree has links to their various social media accounts. (That looks like a really useful site!) You can see what they have posted in various places.

Disclaimer: I have no interest, financial or otherwise, in Jerry Pike Photo. Never heard the name before tonight. I just noticed Marcus rewhatevering him, and thought they would be worth looking at.

Soft paywall, more of a minor speedbump.

This is hard to dismiss as a mere "hit piece". The main point is some people expressing concern that one erratic person, sometimes seemingly pro-Russian, has so much control over important infrastructure. The main example is Ukraine, but Taiwan is mentioned too. Despite measured negativity, it is also mentioned how Starlink has helped Ukraine, with a positive comment from Ukraine's digital minister.

It also has some nice animations and pictures (though the Starlink interconnect diagram looks hopelessly wrong).

SpaceNews notes prominently at the top, "Advertiser content: This content was commissioned and paid for by the sponsor". "Brent Prokosh is a Senior Affiliate Consultant at Euroconsult, based out of its Montreal office. Sponsored by Euroconsult. The Euroconsult Group is the leading global strategy consulting and market intelligence firm specialized in the space sector and satellite enabled verticals....". I have no idea who they might be.

I don't like to quote so much, but there's a lot of data and the original article ("The Information") is paywalled.

What I find interesting is that they expect that the rest of the launch business will get them $4.8 billion.

SpaceX has told investors that it expects to roughly double its revenues in 2023 to upwards of $8 billion (from $4 billion in 2022) as reported earlier in July by The Information.

If SpaceX succeeds in achieving this revenue forecast, Euroconsult estimates that upwards of 40% of these revenues, or $3.2 billion, could be attributable to the broadband connectivity services of Starlink ...

Diving deeper into the numbers, roughly 75% of Starlink’s projected 2023 revenues would likely be derived from the mix of service subscriptions across its residential, business and mobility segments, with the 25% balance being driven by hardware sales associated with gross subscriber additions.

In terms of active subscribers, Starlink’s base is expected to double from and estimated 1.1 million in January 2023 to ~2.2 million by the end of 2023, driven by a mix of factors including aggressive hardware price discounts, new distribution channels and a continued expansion of available capacity supply and the number of active countries. As an example of hardware price promotions, Starlink is actively offering its standard-grade user terminals for as low as $150 for residential subscribers in rural Canada.

Overall, the residential (consumer) segment is estimated to dominate Starlink’s subscriber mix, accounting for >85% of active subscriptions, including “roam” (formerly called “RV”) portability plans. The pace of subscriber additions, reported by SpaceX at as high as 3,500 new subscribers per day in the spring 2023 timeframe, is expected to moderate over the course of the year due to higher levels of addressable market penetration and continued capacity constraints in high demand areas such as the U.S.

While Starlink has yet to publicly disclose the number of subscribers for its higher revenue per user “business” plans, the segment could account for 10% to 15% of active subscribers given indicative take-up for civil government projects and corporate networks.

A bit of discussion about penetration in the maritime market, but they haven't gotten much business in aircraft.

They are no longer insisting on exclusive distribution, but partnering with big-box retailers, "nearly all of the world’s largest maritime VSAT service providers", et cetera.

Based on the aforementioned 2023 revenue estimates, Starlink could reach an annual revenue run-rate of up to $4 billion by early 2024, however the pace of growth observed to date in 2023 will be challenging to sustain. Notably, residential subscriber growth will almost certainly slow in the absence of service price reductions and/or a meaningful increase in the pace of launches of its higher capacity Gen2 satellites, which is only expected to occur alongside the transition to operational flights for Starship. As such, hardware revenues may observe a declining path if gross additions slow or fall from 2023 levels.

"Boeing’s Starliner losses total $1.5 billion with NASA astronauts still waiting to fly" by Michael Sheetz and Leslie Josephs at CNBC.

Key points:

• Boeing's latest charge on its Starliner astronaut spacecraft brings the program's overrun costs to $1.5 billion to date.

• The aerospace giant last month decided to indefinitely delay the first crewed Starliner launch.

• Since 2014, when NASA awarded Boeing with a nearly $5 billion fixed-price contract to develop Starliner, the company has recorded losses on the program almost every year.

"$257 million charge in the second quarter" of this year. It was going to launch in July, "But Boeing discovered two new problems with Starliner and called off the launch to correct the issues.".

Still, Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun said on an earnings call Wednesday that the manufacturer is "in lockstep" with NASA on Starliner development....

Boeing recorded other losses in its defense, space and security unit for the second quarter: a $189 million loss in the T-7A trainer jet program and $68 million charge on its MQ-25 unit.

Boeing last year announced additional losses on the Air Force One program, bringing charges on the contract negotiated with the Trump administration to above $1 billion.

Edit: I ran across another article, "Boeing has now lost $1.1 billion on Starliner, with no crew flight in sight", in ArsTechnica by Eric Berger. Somewhat different estimate of the loss, obv. Also, he wrote about the issues.

... two serious issues with Starliner. One of these involved the "soft links" in the lines that connect the Starliner capsule to its parachutes, and the second problem came with hundreds of feet of P-213 glass cloth tape inside the spacecraft found to be flammable....

The identification of two serious problems so close to the spaceflight prompted NASA to take a broader look at Starliner and determine whether there might be other problems lurking in the spacecraft. "On the NASA side, we really stepped back and looked at all aspects of flight preparation," Stich said....

NASA, Boeing, and the parachute supplier, Airborne, have been working through the soft-link issue, he said. Engineering teams have identified a new type of joint that can meet NASA's safety requirements. However, Stich did not say the extent to which these new soft links have been field tested, nor how much of a test campaign is necessary to certify them for flight.

Technicians have also removed panels from inside the Starliner spacecraft to access the flammable tape. This glass cloth tape was wrapped around wiring inside the spacecraft to protect it from chafing and rubbing in flight. Stich said about three pounds of tape have been removed from Starliner so far.

"We've been able to remove a lot of that tape, and that work is progressing really well," Stich said. NASA and Boeing have identified a non-flammable replacement, he said.

Eric suggested that the launch "may very well slip into 2024".

Nine years ago, when NASA down-selected to Boeing and SpaceX to provide crew transportation services to the space station, Boeing was considered the prohibitive favorite to deliver first for NASA. However, SpaceX will launch its seventh operational mission and eighth overall crew mission for NASA next month.

NASA has already announced that SpaceX will fly its Crew-8 mission for NASA in February or March of next year. Given the ongoing delays, it is now possible that Crew-9 flies next fall, before Boeing's first operational mission, Starliner-1. NASA has not named a full four-person crew for Starliner-1 but has said that astronauts Scott Tingle and Mike Fincke will serve as commander and pilot.

Scott Tingle is, of course, the brother of the noted author Chuck Tingle, author of Slammed in the Butt by Ongoing Boeing Mismanagement.

A short Twunk thread from Stephen Clark @StephenClark1, 12:51 PM - Jul 25, 2023 et seq.

A couple bits of info from the Crew-7 preview news conference:

SpaceX has begun using a new launch control center at the company's Hangar X facility at KSC for Starlink missions.

It'll be used to control the Falcon Heavy/Jupiter 3 launch Wednesday night, then again for Crew-7.

And SpaceX's first space station cargo mission from the SLC-40 launch pad at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station since 2020 will be the Northrop Grumman NG-20 mission in December.

This is the first of three Cygnus resupply launches Northrop has contracted to SpaceX.

No update from NASA or SpaceX on the construction of a new tower at SLC-40 for crew and cargo launches. Not sure it's required for Cygnus cargo loading, but will be needed for Dragon.

CProphet (Chris Prophet) pointed out in The Other Place points out that it is said to be a launch control center, but mission control remains at Hawthorne, CA. Another user said that Hawthorne seemed crowded, and another wrote that it'll replace the "rented KSC fire control room".

Also, Hangar X is at the Roberts Road facility at Cape Canaveral, FL.

Unfortunately, it's paywalled, so all I can read is the start,

Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies, the most highly valued private tech company in the U.S., has told some investors it expects to bring in about $8 billion in revenue in 2023, roughly doubling its revenue from the previous year, according to people familiar with the discussions.

The expectation for rapid growth helps explain the fervor of some investors for SpaceX shares, which have defied recently depressed private tech valuations. The company, valued in a secondary share sale at about $150 billion this month, has also assured investors it expects to pull in about $3 billion in operating profits this year, at least by a measure that excludes expenses tied to building rockets and satellites.

Can anyone read the rest?

Has anyone seen analysis? The "excludes expenses tied to building rockets and satellites" is a pretty big "except".

SLC-6 is a launch pad at Vandenberg Space Force Base.

Summary: because "SLC-6's main trench was designed to handle >30,000 kN of thrust", the thrust of a Space Shuttle. "Falcon Heavy makes ~22,800 kN of thrust".

I saw the fireworks at the Q2 stadium tonight, but from a building nearby.

I thought they were kind of meh. 11 minutes and the grand finale was not grand.

Were people inside the stadium able to see them? From a distant angle, it looked like they were being launched off the top of the roof on the southern seating area.

I hope spaceflight posts are welcome for now.

On 2 July 2013, a Russian Proton rocket had a spectacular crash on takeoff (original video was here with the original watermark but in 2x slow-motion). Anyway.

There's a story that a technician deliberately hammered in a set of sensors upside down, despite a system that should have prevented installation the wrong way. John Palmé @JohnPalme tweeted to set the record straight.

Not true - I ran the US Failure investigation.

The Yaw rate sensors were a blind install with off center pin holes that were supposed to make sure that the unit was installed in correct orientation. Unfortunately the pins on the mounting bracket were only press fit...

...so when the new tech installed them blind by reaching through an access hole, he slid them onto the studs, and then torqued the nuts down on the studs. The act of torquing the studs drove the press fit pins back in the bracket...

...and allowed the unit to sit flush on the bracket. The debris of the units showed the mark on the baseplate that the alignment stud made as it was driven back into the bracket. Root cause....

They were building so many Protons, they used a secondary horizontal stand at the factory for building the stage. The primary stand only allowed 1 orientation of +Y up so the install documentation did not ask for orientation verification. The secondary stand allowed...

either +Y or -Y up, and this LV was in -Y up. The tech installed the unit per the documentation, but the stage was inverted. The quality person looked through an access hatch after install and verified the orientation arrow on the unit was pointing up per the documentation.

The tech was new so did not realize the force that was needed for the nuts was atypical, and the quality documentation did not ask for verification that alignment studs were in the holes.