Wouldn't surprise me at all if a strategist like McConnell knew in advance where every single vote would land, and made his vote specifically for Vance to be able to break the tie.
At least I guarantee that if his vote would have been the deciding one between "tiebreaker" and "failed confirmation", he'd have either voted to confirm or, if he felt really strongly, abstained to let Vance break the tie.
It wasn't until I saw this pic that I realized that a platypus and a tardigrade look alike.