Maybe, but there is incentive to not let that happen, and I wouldn’t be surprised if “they” have unpublished tech that will be rushed out.
The ROI doesn’t matter, it wasn’t there yet it’s the potential for it. The Chinese AIs are also not there yet. The proposition is to reduce FTEs, regardless of cost, as long as cost is less.
While I see OpenAi and mostly startups and VC reliant companies taking a hit, Nvidia itself as the shovel maker will remain strong.
I’m not sure. That’s a very static view of the context.
While china has an AI advantage due to wider adoption, less constraints and overall bigger market, the US has higher tech, and more funds.
OpenAI, Anthropic, MS and especially X will all be getting massive amounts of backing and will reverse engineer and adopt whatever advantages R1 had. Which while there are some it’s still not a full spectrum competitor.
I see the is as a small correction that the big players will take advantage of to buy stock, and then pump it with state funds, furthering the gap and ignoring the Chinese advances.
Regardless, Nvidia always wins. They sell the best shovels. In any scenario the world at large still doesn’t have their Nvidia cluster, think Africa, Oceania, South America, Europe, SEA who doesn’t necessarily align with Chinese interests, India. Plenty to go around.
While this is great, the training is where the compute is spent. The news is also about R1 being able to be trained, still on an Nvidia cluster but for 6M USD instead of 500
It’s not the states blocking ph, but ph blocking the states.
Thank you for the amazing post, many of these are useful and you described them well. Lovely blog!
Sabbatical? That sounds like a normal holiday. 😵
Yes. Reality is often a worsening of conditions rather the opposite, this has been the norm.
It’s unfortunate.
On one hand we do have to “applaud” a brutal dictator being deposed, which as an isolated fact is good. On the other hand, what will follow will be much worse, which is bad.
It’s the same story as with the Arab spring, we all thought it was going to be different. This is just from awful to worse I’m afraid.
Lose a shithead dictator, gain another Islamic theocracy.
The fun part is that his picture will also unlock the door 🥸
But I’d imagine any Chinese operator will handle scale much better? Or?