As I've speculated here earlier, with more than 1000 lost personnel, it looks like Putin continues the attack on Avdiivka despite winter weather.
I wouldn't be surprised if we continue to see high numbers compared to last winter. Because Putin want's a win. Even if it is a very bad military decision.
this post was submitted on 05 Dec 2023
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The intressting question here is why does Putin need a win. The US is out of money to support Ukraine, since the Republicans are blocking support. Russia has done a good job lasting out the Ukranian summer offensive. So why can Putin not wait for half a year, let Ukraine attack and the US support blow up and then attack say next summer.
That imho is the real question here.
Because traditionally Putin holds a speech to the nation when he announces he is running for reelection in March 2024. And he wants to be able to brag about something in that speech, and he wants to convince Russians that the war is going as planned. It's hard to believe, but their rhetoric has been for a while, that the war is basically over, and Russia has won it already!!!
Maybe that sounds self contradictory, but that's a strategy Trump also uses all the time, and it has worked well beyond imagination in USA too.
Putin may also use this tactic to discourage the west from helping Ukraine, he is trying to make it look like Russia can keep going for as long as it takes, so this will have no end, unless we let Russia get what they want.
I'm happy to see Ukraine continues to pound enemy artillery. That was one of Russia's big advantages at the start of the war; something like 10x as many artillery rounds fired per day. We have seen many reports of Russia losing that advantage, and even a few saying Ukraine has a small artillery advantage now.