No Stupid Questions

I find it hard to believe that the average or even above average user will make the effort to switch.

Not really impossible if said users "dopamine fix" gets cut off. Which may happen (or not, depending of how intense it is.)

The vast majority will just download the official app or quit using the site. I don't suspect all that many will end up here.

I really enjoy the idea of open source, so earlier today I started thinking isn't that the direction the reddit community should take? Couple of minutes and a search later i found Lemmy and thought it was the coolest concept ever. I may not be most reddit users, but the actions reddit have taken certainly got me here. Lack of apps on ios may be problematic as i don't think most users will think of using web apps (or whatever they're called)

Reddit is gigantic, and while Fediversal alternatives are gaining users rapidly there's a long ways to go.

A useful way to look at it is, we don't have to defeat Reddit. We're creating a community as an alternative. Reddit hasn't lost a large number users when judged as a percentage of their base, but many of the people who are leaving are the ones who see where it's going, and are the power users, the knowledgeable people, the cool people. The ones who make Reddit a place worth being.

It's the same with Twitter. A lot of Twitter and Reddit users just keep their heads down and use the service, as it goes to hell around them. A lot of people join social media sites because it's where other people are, or it's where their friends are. People who joined when social media finally broke the internet away from being mostly the domain of the technically inclined. Even now, a lot of people mostly use it for streaming. These people may not leave Twitter or Reddit ever, because they really don't care about it. But the people who were big internet users, or would have been were old enough in the late 90s or early 2000s, those are the kinds of people that Reddit, and Twitter, are losing.

Now, there are a lot of people on Twitter who I'd have thought have jumped ship by now, but to many people admin decisions feel like they have only a theoretical impact unless it affects their experience, or themselves, directly. The best thing that can be done is just keep on being awesome, and make cool posts that can't be found elsewhere. Once a community gets a reputation for that, people will come naturally.

Doubtful, to be honest.

Most who have used 3rd Party apps have already migrated or found some other solution. Those who don't care are still using the official app, and, to be frank, despite what everyone says, the quality content hasn't decreased by that much.

It's still half Twitter and TikTok reposts, and one-fourth 'advice subs' (creative writing), like it's been for several years before this debacle.

Hell, maybe this is a good thing in some ways, where that kind of content can hopefully fall by the wayside over here, instead of choking communities out like it does in Reddit. (I have over 50 popular subreddits on Boost filtered out to avoid this stuff, and it's still not enough to get rid of all of it)

I'm guessing a good chunk of people will be split between creating an account on Lemmy/kbin, raddle, squabbles and possibly tildes. One of the alternatives will most likely win out for users switching from Reddit, I hope it is Lemmy but who knows.

I already switched over. But I guess majority of 3rd party app users are still waiting for the last moment.

There will be a good size wave. The big wave is coming when Reddit sells out and forced to get rid of old reddit which is less profitable than its horrible standard interface.

Interesting to see how it goes.

I’ve been thinking that too. Most of the users who care enough probably have heard of the whole thing by now and prepared for it in whatever way makes sense for them. I think the very small number that are left using third-party apps care little enough to either reluctantly move to the official Reddit app (that’s what I used to use, I didn’t even know there were other apps), or they might even care little enough that they’ll just stop browsing Reddit altogether because their interest in it doesn’t match the effort they’d have to do to adapt to the new world in any way.

I think there will be some highly-motivated enough individuals who might have been living under a rock, and we’ll have a little bump, but probably not very big.

@Crylos if even half of a single percentage of Reddit users come over, that would be a staggering number of new users.

I would imagine that most of the influx already happened and most people who care should be here (in the threadiverse) already. That is unless:

1. unpurged accounts becoming [deleted] makes it more apparent those who left, and the scale/news of it
2. quality drops like a rock due to mods and users who have left (also because of those who stay behind)
3. the admins keep digging further
4. there is a sizable chunk of people who for whatever reason haven't paid attention to the situation for a month, or haven't decided on an instance

I would say something about continuing mod protests, but I think if they're not here already they are probably are just mad that it's happening and wouldn't switch.

In any case I cannot see any of these causing an influx on the 30th or even on any timescale shorter than a week.

I think it would be more like July 1st because that's when the new API fees take effect. That change will affect anyone using a third-party mobile Reddit app, which is only a small percentage of Reddit users. But, Reddit has many millions of users so still a lot of people.

Some people may leave Reddit because they don't want to use the official Reddit app, some may have already left because so many subreddits are in protest, some may leave out of principle. But it's those using a third-party Reddit app that do not want to switch to the official app or reddit.com that will be most likely to come to Lemmy July 1st.