The whole thing was so weird
this post was submitted on 25 Jun 2023
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Agreed. Seems so strange how they just withdrew.
It's almost like the dog that caught the car and had no idea what to do. I assume they expected resistance and didn't actually want to coup d'etat, just make a point. Crazy.
What if the coup was actually successful and there will be a power transfer? Nobody half asses a coup and lives to tell the tale
That's the real question, people going to be vanishing
Prigozhin isn't stupid - I doubt he would have stopped without a good reason. They would have taken moscow if they went for it. My personal theory is that there was a palace revolution that we're not privvy to.
Nothing about this, with the information that we have makes sense tbh. Only reason he'd stop is if he was certain he wouldn't have been suicided. That certainly indicates a shift of power in Kremlin but as to what actually happened we can only speculate. I think it's telling we didn't hear Putin have an adress yet.
People who are paid mercenaries with black hearts... Yeah I don't think the world will be a worse place without them. :)
Only in movies these people are made to be heroes.
Well they will be moved to Africa and so they'll still be making the world a worse place. Just not in this particular theater.
tl;dr:
ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 25 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. Russian sources widely voiced concerns that the rebellion could disrupt Russian forces' ability to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensives, but many milbloggers asserted that Russian forces are continuing to repel Ukrainian attacks. Prigozhin attempted to justify his armed rebellion by accusing the Russian MoD - namely Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov - of causing irreversible Russian losses on the battlefield and for striking a Wagner base, but notably did not criticize Putin. Russian milbloggers claimed that intensified Ukrainian assaults and decreased Russian artillery fire contributed to Ukrainian advances south of Orikhiv during the night of June 23 and on June 24. Russian forces continued ground attacks near Kreminna amid Russian claims of continued Ukrainian assaults in the area on June 24.
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Why is everyone concluding that this weakens Putin?
If anything could overthrow him, a Wagner coup tops the list, but it ended as quickly as it began. Now there’s fewer looming threats and he proved he can squash such a serious one with ease. Didn’t he become more secure?
The only harm I can see is that Wagner is no longer in Ukraine.
A private military of 25,000 was permitted to occupy the southern military district headquarters, down military helicopters, and march through the streets most of the way to the capitol.
They did so with zero apparent or meaningful resistance.
It's not about nebulous power moves that raise or lower Putin's perceived strength. It's about the very real and very poor state of Russia's available internal security forces.
It makes Putin look weak since he can't even control his own military forces and had to be saved by a foreign leader.
It makes the Russian military look weak since they had no answer to a coup attempt against their own headquarters and against their capital, even with forewarning.
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