Tl;dr, AMOC collapse extremely likely (95% confidence) from 2025-2095. So, within many people's lifetimes.
this post was submitted on 25 Jul 2023
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Collapse
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This is the place for discussing the potential collapse of modern civilization and the environment.
Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.
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It doesn't stop overnight. In fact it has noticeably slowed down already. Of course the process becomes quicker when Greenland freshwater runoff becomes massive.
If the records shattered this year tell us anything, it is that these models are too optimistic. Undoubtedly, this will occur during our lives.
Yeah, I know it's a bit of a meme within the community. But surely scientists should start modelling in 'faster than expected' to get more accurate results.
That's a pretty good spread of years, though. Is that something that they can reduce with more data or technological advances?