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If Harris wins by 270 or 276 electoral votes the day after the election, how long will it likely take to settle who will be the 47th President definitively? (thebrainbin.org)

submitted 3 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Both the NYT and Nate’s Silver Bulletin forecast a close race. In simulations there are solid likelihoods that if Harris wins, 270 or 276 may be the electoral outcome.

Of course, polling error of 3-4 percent greatly exceeds small bumps in polls.

I’m curious what happens after a close Harris win scenario if results are disputed.

Might it take until SCOTUS weighs in on specific electoral challenges? 2-3 rounds of hand counting ballots?

For example, Nate Silver’s forecast shows MI, WI, NV and gaining .8 to .9 towards Trump in polls but still potentially a Harris win.

At the same time the forecasted margin for must-win states for Trump like NC and Georgia are under 1 percent in Trump’s favor.

These results may all be delayed, likely challenged, and move through state and possibly SCOTUS elections and legal processes.

Source: substack paid subscription to the Silver Bulletin and NYT.

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[–] njm1314 10 points 3 months ago (1 children)

If it goes to the Supreme Court then Donald Trump is going to be president that shouldn't be a question for anybody that is just a fact.

[–] lemmefixdat4u 3 points 3 months ago

Personally, I have never been more afraid of an American civil war. No matter who wins, this will not go down well.

[–] makyo 8 points 3 months ago

I'm not at all an expert but I'd imagine that would put us deeply in clusterfuck territory and it'd take months to sort out.