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founded 3 months ago

If Harris wins by 270 or 276 electoral votes the day after the election, how long will it likely take to settle who will be the 47th President definitively? (thebrainbin.org)

submitted 3 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Both the NYT and Nate’s Silver Bulletin forecast a close race. In simulations there are solid likelihoods that if Harris wins, 270 or 276 may be the electoral outcome.

Of course, polling error of 3-4 percent greatly exceeds small bumps in polls.

I’m curious what happens after a close Harris win scenario if results are disputed.

Might it take until SCOTUS weighs in on specific electoral challenges? 2-3 rounds of hand counting ballots?

For example, Nate Silver’s forecast shows MI, WI, NV and gaining .8 to .9 towards Trump in polls but still potentially a Harris win.

At the same time the forecasted margin for must-win states for Trump like NC and Georgia are under 1 percent in Trump’s favor.

These results may all be delayed, likely challenged, and move through state and possibly SCOTUS elections and legal processes.

Source: substack paid subscription to the Silver Bulletin and NYT.

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[–] lemmefixdat4u 3 points 3 months ago

Personally, I have never been more afraid of an American civil war. No matter who wins, this will not go down well.