US future Reality check:
Will Kamala win the election? On paper, maybe. But it depends on how the swing states go.
But even then, “Will Kamala win” is mostly a moot question. Because The Republican Party will cheat. Range from reject to certify votes to straight up another coup.
Should you be worried? No. You should be prepared. But not worried.
What extend of readiness the Democrat leadership is in? According to a recent news, “Biden not confident of peaceful transfer of power if Trump loses election” signing that they are deeply aware of the risk, it’s reasonable to believe they have comprehensive degree of contingencies planned.
How likely are they going to stage a coup? Current Republican strategy seems to be heavily focus on vote purges, and abuse the power of the state election board to give them the victory directly. There hasn’t been any surges of rhetoric and activities that lead to the suspicion of a coup in planning. So any coup attempt is likely poorly planned and unsustainable. Check in again in a few months to see if this is still the case.
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How the coup will go down:
Pre-stage
- gerrymander
- vote purge
- give state election board power to overturn result
- prepping their base on the thought of another violence insurrection
Day of vote
- vote intimidation
- vote impersonation
- tossing out ballots
Post vote
- cry foul “election is rigged”
- rally maga crowds into violent action
Last stage
- have all red state officials toss out the election result, bring along with state police and other units that are under their control with them.
Every step before the last are almost guaranteed to happen. But when I say coup, I only mean it at the meaningful last stage, where red state officials openly rejects the election result.
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If there’s going to be a coup, the outcome can be split into 4 scenario.
- The Dems clean shutdown on their coup attempt
- The Coup failed, but Republicans managed to walk back to another 4 years of “nothing happen”.
- Messy shutdown on coup attempt: State officials declare their support for Trump, election result rejected, but they failed to gain major progress before their momentum stalled. Future become unpredictable.
- The coup is successful, and Dem leadership are arrested or forced into hiding or exile.
The first three are the most likely scenario consider A, the Dems party are prepared and B, the Dem voters are highly energized, and likely willing to put up meaningful resistance.
The last scenario is statistical unlikely possibility for the same reason as above. But it is also because:
- It is more likely they either won the election, so no coup is necessary.
- Or they can’t win the election because their voters aren’t excited enough. And if that is the case then how much of their voters are excited about the prospect of backing another coup?
So a coup is the last ditch attempt in a sense. If they are counting on a coup long before Nov 5, they are already lose.
But then again, it doesn’t mean they will be defeated easily. It only seems so because we are focusing on a path where they are forced to do a coup right now.
The takeaway form this, if there’s any, is that a coup is almost certain(maybe not) with a Dem victory. Pull off a coup is harder than winning the election.
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Now Lets explore what would happen if Trump won. While less likely at the time I wrote this, it is still a highly possible outcome, a one you must pay attention to.
With Biden Drop out and Kamala in the ballot, Democrats morale and tensions are high. Any light provocation after they won the election will boil Democrats over, and spurn them into action.
So the R party either come in planned to do a massacre, or tippy toes around controversial issues in hope as little people opposing them and their agenda as possible. But they are dumb and arrogant, and don’t know why is that a bad idea. So my bet is they will try the former. But it won’t happen overnight. You’ll still have a few days to a few months to make preparation after the election.
(Below are written just after Kamala announce her run for presidency. Democrats were just peaking up, but we don’t know how far the changes would excite Dem voters, and the Republican party were still very dominant at the time.)
More than just racial and sexual minorities, Democrats representatives will also be targeted. Tension will broke out almost immediately.
What could happen and when? No one can tell. It’s completely out of your control. But it’s not all doom and gloom. You still have things to be optimistic about.
Trump is too old. Nobody can replace Trump. Barely 50% of people support him Other 50% of people hate, hate, HATE him. Most of governmental administrative building is located within deep Blue region. Dem government on your side. The goal is economy. Trump is a weak dictator.
Maybe there are few things you as a collective can do.
Militarize, unionize, stock up essentials, and keep talking to people. Build up as much as you can. Do not engage in aggression until they then.
The next step is to urge the EU, Canada, Mexico, and other allies for intervention.
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If Democrats are smart they should already been talking with Canada, Mexico, and other EU countries for intervention for the possible worst case scenario. You can start talking about it in case they haven’t.
Maybe if you talk loud enough, you might able pressure the leaders of other countries to make public assurance independent of their private talks with the cabinet.
But even so, the level of commitment toward an intervention, or if they are willing to committed any are all unclear.
These are some of the more reasonable action they might committed to.
Accept refugees sanction or other economic deterrent military assistant/ military deterrent
Their assistance will not based on principle. Depend on how the new administration act, how dire the situations are, were important figure targeted, how much it affect the western hegemony, and how sensational the journalist reporting is, assistance beyond refugee acceptance is minimally scoped, or very unlikely.
Unless they already talked and made agreements prior to the election. If they hasn’t done so, you can help remind them.
This is already a conjecture upon a conjecture. Beyond knowing a Trump victory will not be the end of democracy, and you might have allies to rely on, there’s no point in talking further.
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You do whatever other Democrats do. You fight if the Dem leadership are willing to fight. You flee to other country if you see people start packing.
But that’s enough tangent we don’t need to over think for now. It’s not November, Dem numbers are good, a lot of things can still happen, you can’t do anything about it.
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That’s about it I guess. Not a US citizen personally. So you need to check if I’m off. But I think even if I’m off, it’s not by much.
And also, if you think I am off, that’s probably because politic is an ever changing landscape.
Kamala Harris just had an overwhelming victory, so a lot of these talk look a lot like some fantastical nonsense. This text was conceived when, and as a response to Biden catastrophic CNN debate, and continued it’s formation when Biden refuses to drop out, and defeat seems inevitable. Remember those time? Fun. Innit? This text was only revisited and polished after Kamala Harris had her surge in popularity.
A lot of you would take the text more seriously if Biden was still on the ballot I bet. But still, situation changes all the time, and it will continue to change in the future. Read this again if you are ever in the bad timeline again. It might have some grounding effect.
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Maybe Trump is not fight as hard as he should. Because he has no reason to?
With the supreme court and Republican loyalists in all level of the government, and with most of the charges already dropped, he is no longer going to be prosecuted.
And maybe after the assassination attempt, his heart is no longer in it?
Just conjecture.
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