538 has suspended their forecast until a democratic nominee has been chose.
Guess Fivey will just be twiddling his thumbs until then.
this post was submitted on 22 Jul 2024
9 points (90.9% liked)
Neoliberal
279 readers
1 users here now
Woke Rainbow Capitalism (nerds)
Trains, free trade, and open borders; trans rights and taco trucks on every corner. Please read the sidebar for more information.
Community Bookmarks
- FAQs
- Latest discussion thread: September 2024
- US Presidential Election 270 to Win Interactive Map
- US Presidential Election 538 Megathread
Rules:
1. Instance Terms of Service
Comply with the Lemmy.world terms of service.
2. Civility
Refrain from name-calling, slapfights, hostility, doxxing, or any uncivil behavior that derails the quality of the conversation.
A specific one of importance you might not generally expect on Lemmy or the wider fediverse, and enforced to further community health, is Do not engage in excessive partisanship.
3. Bigotry
Bigotry of any kind will be sanctioned harshly.
4. Unconstructive Engagement
Do not post with the intent to provoke, mischaracterize, or troll other users rather than meaningfully contributing to the conversation. Don't disrupt serious discussions. Bad opinions are not automatically unconstructive.
Do not reflexively downvote just because someone has a different opinion.
Also, as a general disclaimer, keep in mind that votes on posts and comments are discoverable as they federate with other instances and that is outside the control of this community.
5. Off-topic Comments
Comments on submissions should substantively address the topic of submission.
6. Glorifying Violence
Do not advocate or encourage violence either seriously or jokingly. Do not glorify oppressive/autocratic regimes.
7. Brigading
Refrain from brigading other communities or fediverse instances, or coming from another community or fediverse instance and brigading this community. Links within the community are encouraged provided no other rules are broken.
8. Off-topic, Meta, or Duplicate Post
Submissions should be relevant to public policy or political theory. Meta posts should be posted to the discussion thread. Generally avoid editorializing submission titles.
9. Submission Quality
Low-quality or irrelevant submissions will be removed at mod discretion. This applies in particular to low-quality or repetitive memes.
10. Tag Communities and/or Users Wisely
Do not tag communities and/or users to troll, spam, or brigade.
11. Bonk-Posting/Sexual Content
Go be horny somewhere else. Do not post inappropriate content of a sexual nature. Both SFW and NSFW content can qualify. Repeat infringements can lead to bans.
12. Toxic Nationalism/Regionalism
Refrain from condemning countries and regions or their inhabitants at-large in response to political developments, mocking people for their nationality or region, or advocating for colonialism or imperialism.
Other Fediverse Communities:
We in c/Neoliberal support:
- Free trade and competitive markets
- Immigration
- YIMBYism – ‘yes in my backyard’-ism
- Carbon taxes
- Internationalism and supranational governance – e.g. the EU, UN, NATO, IMF
- LGBTQ+ rights
- Democracy, human rights, civil liberties and due process
Neoliberals can be found in many political parties and we are not dogmatic supporters of specific parties. But we tend to find ourselves agreeing more often with parties that espouse liberal values, internationalism and centrist economics, such as the Democrats in the US, Liberal Democrats in the UK, FDP in Germany, Renaissance/MoDem in France, the Liberal Party in Canada, and so on.
Further Reading:
- I’m a Neoliberal. Maybe You Are Too.
- The Neoliberal Mind
- Neo-Liberalism and its Prospects
- Neoliberalism: the Genesis of a Political Swear Word
News sources:
Here are some suggested news sources that we like and tend to find reliable. Please note that posts and threads are not at all limited to these sources!--
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
Shit just got real.
You should keep it in mind that 538 != Nate Silver. 538 had the election in favor of Biden. No one under gods blue heaven knows what kind of crack their model was smoking.
Nate Silver had Biden to lose at %70+.
Nates most recent blog on the matter: https://www.natesilver.net/p/biden-and-democrats-make-the-rational
tldr: 538 is crap any more.
edit: new post from Nate https://www.natesilver.net/p/harris-is-the-clear-choice-of-democratic
edit edit: fun one. Nate throwing 538 under the bus https://www.natesilver.net/p/why-i-dont-buy-538s-new-election
Yes, Nate Silver has his own website now which unfortunately (but understandably) has a paywall to access some content.
G. Elliot Morris is now heading up 538’s model.
It is notable that Morris’s model was the only one that was giving Biden the edge because it was assuming events in the lead up to the election would benefit Biden. As we get closer to the election, the model would put more emphasis on polls than those (presumed) events.
Yeah I think any one with two eyes and any level of understanding of politics was both laughing at and shitting on the 538 predictions.
Like, so bad as to be considered in the realm of propaganda bad.
Yeah the main reason I posted it was because it still is decent, free poll aggregate and does a good job of visually showing a path to victory. The interactive map also does a good job of showing which states are the key swing states.
But I agree Morris’s model is very flawed; in the past week alone it showed several reputable polls as having Trump in the lead (some by +5 and +6 points) and none showing Biden in the lead. Despite that, it still said Biden had around a 50% chance or more to win. To make it even more questionable, both The Economist and Nate Silver believed Biden would lose 2/3rds of the time.
Basically, it seems to rely heavily on the assumption that future events would play out extremely well for Biden and not at all for Trump, which in my opinion is a major flaw (especially given how crazy this election cycle has been already).
I guess we will see how much 538’s forecast changes as Morris emphasizes the polls more than “events” closer to the election. Perhaps it will be more realistic, because right now I agree it is not.
Yeah the tools that were built up under Nate are great. I use them all the time.
I'm extremely interested to see how Kamala's polling shifts over the next few weeks. I'm always surprised by how long it takes the news to actually make it into the polling. I don't expect things to be fully cooked for at least 2 weeks, more like 3. She just got in the race, lets see how she does, lets see what she says. I think Bidens poll numbers were also dragging Kamala down.
I see a lane for her to step left (oppose) Gaza/ Israel, and get back into the game in the upper mid-west, and to also put both NC and GA back into play. It makes a Josh Shapiro VP pick super obvious, because he can work Penn and thats the ball game.