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Scottish government coalition collapses as SNP end power-sharing with Greens
(www.independent.co.uk)
Looks like Douglas Ross won the race to table a VONC.
this post was submitted on 25 Apr 2024
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VONC in Humza now. The greens are fuming, and I'm not sure every SNP msp will back him either.
For example, Fergus Ewing got suspended for voting no confidence in the green minister, and now the green minister has been sacked...
As fairly useless as this parliament has been, I can't see the numbers adding up to a vonc. I certainly can't see any other grouping getting sufficient numbers to reform a government either. Meaning if the SNP are forced out, we may see an election sooner rather than later
Assuming every msp votes (except the presiding officer), it's 63 SNP msps vs. 65 opposition. You can count on lab, libdem and torys voting against him, if the greens also vote that way then he's toast.
SGP to abstain I'll bet. Expect Murdo to table a vonc today
Greens have confirmed they will vote against Humza. Ash Regan is now in a very powerful position.
Polling suggests that the greens could attract disaffected snp voters, they might be in line to get more seats if an election is held soonish.
Nothing for them to lose anymore.
Slater raging. They may well back a no confidence. Hard to see Humza survive that. Forbes for FM by June?
I don't know many jumping ship to greens. Definitely older people are more Alba curious, but also little signs at the ballot box. Widespread dissatisfaction with the SNP, but what's the alternative? Given the greens' record in government to date I wouldn't trust them with more power personally. Cannot see many SNP going back to Labour, they will continue to haemorrhage to Tories. I can see indy votes just not turning out and unionist parties picking up a bit more as incompetence continues - meaning a Labour/Tory alliance could be on the cards next time
I really can't see Labour ever jumping into bed with the Tories. It'd be electoral suicide and not only in Scotland; it'd be potentially damaging in Wales and many university towns in England, too.
A Lab-Lib Dem coalition is a maybe, but there probably aren't and won't be enough of them for it to be worth it.
They do it in councils up and down the land. Now they may not do a coalition, confidence and supply only, but it's the only viable route and I'd bet money on it if the numbers made sense
I don't think this is true? As far as I know, there was just one council (Aberdeen) where any Labour councillors formally joined a Conservative coalition, and they were all suspended and so are no longer members of Scottish Labour. There may be others where there's confidence and supply agreements short of a formal coalition, granted.
I'm not sure how much local agreements can tell us, anyway. ~~There are several councils with formal Lab/SNP coalitions~~, [EDIT: I was wrong about this, see discussion below!] but I don't think that makes a Lab/SNP coalition in Holyrood very likely!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_government_in_Scotland - hard to gauge how often an anti-snp deal is done here. But I don't know many councils where Labour/Con minorities are engaging with the SNP.
Turns out I'm out-of-date with my info!
You're right, there aren't currently any Lab/SNP or any Lab/Con coalitions, and I guess all those Aberdeen former-Labour councillors lost their seats, as well as their membership of the party, which is a good cautionary tale for any Labour politicians considering a pact with the Tories.
Further than that. Labour councilors that support SNP councils to stop Tories getting in power have been kicked out the party.
Labour hate the SNP. Tories are just colleagues they disagree with. They don't think along lines like left/right, progressive, best for governing etc.
Any SNP MSP who didn't back him would lose the whip, presumably, so it'd have to be someone either already suspended, very Alba-leaning (or Green curious?) or who's planning on retiring anyway.
Fergus Ewing for example.