rise by nearly 5%
I mean, shouldn't they rise? I'm in the US, and we've just had a bunch of inflation, and I'd assume that the UK has as well. It'd be kind of odd if prices didn't rise in the presence of inflation. The railway's costs are going to rise with inflation.
googles
https://www.in2013dollars.com/uk/inflation/2023?amount=100
According to this, in 2022, the pound saw 7.9% inflation, in 2023, 7.07% inflation, and in 2024, 3.9% (I assume annualized for the last).
reads article
The article says that the Welsh government has stated -- I would assume correctly -- that the fare increases are below inflation:
Rail minister Huw Merriman said last month that the UK Government had attempted to “split the balance between the UK taxpayer and the fare payer” in relation to fare rises, which he described as being “well below inflation”.