Wow that is insanely optimistic. I guess they are expecting IFT3 to go without any issues.
this post was submitted on 23 Feb 2024
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Even if they don’t achieve all five successful launches this year, it is wise for them to start this waiver process now, so it will be on the books for 2025.
Given that the turnaround time for NTSB investigations plus engineering improvements has been about three months for each launch, they would only be able to achieve four flights per year if each was a failure. But if they succeed, it is unlikely to need the same three months to obtain another launch license… hopefully just a matter of weeks.
With true rapid reuse, they’re most likely going to be seeking permanent flight certifications for reuse, presuming no flight hardware will need to be replaced between flights. With this type of cadence, the only limit on launching will be how quickly they can refill the tank farms (and, of course, sufficient consideration for environmental impacts and beach closures).
But if they succeed, it is unlikely to need the same three months to obtain another launch license… hopefully just a matter of weeks.
I hope so. I wonder how long the investigation will be if the ship makes it to orbital velocity but is destroyed during reentry. Closer to three months or three weeks?
Yeah, they don't necessarily need to expect it to work, but they should prepare for it.
IFT-2 came very close to orbital velocity, so I think they've got a good chance of making it with IFT-3.
It’s the only way this is going to work. We need ongoing authorization in order to allow this process to scale.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
As SpaceX nears its first Starship launch of 2024—possibly as soon as within three weeks—from its Starbase facility in South Texas, the company is pressing regulators to increase its cadence of flights.
After SpaceX decided to launch and attempt to land its Starship vehicle in Texas about five years ago, the company had to undergo an enhanced environmental review of the site.
An FAA official confirmed to Ars that the company is seeking a modification of this five-launch limit to accommodate a higher flight rate.
SpaceX launched its first Starship vehicle, which is the largest rocket ever built and is intended to eventually be fully reusable, in April 2023.
That flight caused serious damage to the launch site near Boca Chica Beach and raised environmental concerns after it kicked up large chunks of concrete and dust into the surrounding wetlands.
During congressional testimony last October, SpaceX Vice President of Build and Flight Reliability Bill Gerstenmaier said he wanted to see the US House and Senate provide more resources to the FAA for its licensing review processes.
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