SpaceX

Even if they don’t achieve all five successful launches this year, it is wise for them to start this waiver process now, so it will be on the books for 2025.

Given that the turnaround time for NTSB investigations plus engineering improvements has been about three months for each launch, they would only be able to achieve four flights per year if each was a failure. But if they succeed, it is unlikely to need the same three months to obtain another launch license… hopefully just a matter of weeks.

With true rapid reuse, they’re most likely going to be seeking permanent flight certifications for reuse, presuming no flight hardware will need to be replaced between flights. With this type of cadence, the only limit on launching will be how quickly they can refill the tank farms (and, of course, sufficient consideration for environmental impacts and beach closures).

IFT-2 came very close to orbital velocity, so I think they've got a good chance of making it with IFT-3.