this post was submitted on 07 May 2024
670 points (98.1% liked)

News

23600 readers
3347 users here now

Welcome to the News community!

Rules:

1. Be civil


Attack the argument, not the person. No racism/sexism/bigotry. Good faith argumentation only. This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban. Do not respond to rule-breaking content; report it and move on.


2. All posts should contain a source (url) that is as reliable and unbiased as possible and must only contain one link.


Obvious right or left wing sources will be removed at the mods discretion. We have an actively updated blocklist, which you can see here: https://lemmy.world/post/2246130 if you feel like any website is missing, contact the mods. Supporting links can be added in comments or posted seperately but not to the post body.


3. No bots, spam or self-promotion.


Only approved bots, which follow the guidelines for bots set by the instance, are allowed.


4. Post titles should be the same as the article used as source.


Posts which titles don’t match the source won’t be removed, but the autoMod will notify you, and if your title misrepresents the original article, the post will be deleted. If the site changed their headline, the bot might still contact you, just ignore it, we won’t delete your post.


5. Only recent news is allowed.


Posts must be news from the most recent 30 days.


6. All posts must be news articles.


No opinion pieces, Listicles, editorials or celebrity gossip is allowed. All posts will be judged on a case-by-case basis.


7. No duplicate posts.


If a source you used was already posted by someone else, the autoMod will leave a message. Please remove your post if the autoMod is correct. If the post that matches your post is very old, we refer you to rule 5.


8. Misinformation is prohibited.


Misinformation / propaganda is strictly prohibited. Any comment or post containing or linking to misinformation will be removed. If you feel that your post has been removed in error, credible sources must be provided.


9. No link shorteners.


The auto mod will contact you if a link shortener is detected, please delete your post if they are right.


10. Don't copy entire article in your post body


For copyright reasons, you are not allowed to copy an entire article into your post body. This is an instance wide rule, that is strictly enforced in this community.

founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] sylver_dragon 3 points 7 months ago (1 children)

The polls are actually pretty good. There are two problems:

  1. The US is very closely divided when it comes to the Presidential Election. In 2016 the popular vote split was about 2%. In 2020 it was about 4.5%. And most of the polling was right in that range.
  2. People are shit at statistics. Most of the polls will be published with an error margin of 5% or so. For situations where on candidate is ahead 10-20%, this still puts that candidate winning by a comfortable margin. When the poll is showing a race with one person ahead by 2%, that means the poll is also showing that the other candidate winning is well within the expected result.

And unfortunately, people like clean story-lines and news organizations are more than happy to supply them. Journalists looked at the polls in 2016 and confidently proclaimed that Clinton was leading. The reality was that she had a slight lead and Trump winning was well within the normal margin of error. This turned into a rather famous spat on twitter.

Sadly, we've been stuck in that situation ever since. In 2020, Biden was a slight favorite, but Trump winning was within the margin of error. Right now, polls show a dead heat and either candidate winning would not be a surprise, if the election were held today. One upshot in this, is that pools this early are not very predictive of the final outcome. They shouldn't be ignored, but that also shouldn't be taken as gospel.

So ya, the polls are fine and do a good job of reflecting the actual results of the elections. The problem is idiots that only look at the top-line outcome and don't look at the actual numbers and see that they are actually saying "it's close and could go either way."

[–] laughterlaughter 2 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

It's not like I disagree with you, but we're looking at the same thing with different lens. You're saying things like "science is accurate" which I can agree with. But then you see headlines like "science says vaccines cause autism," and that's what I'm talking about.

So, in your own words:

The polls are actually pretty good.

People are shit at statistics.

And unfortunately, people like clean story-lines and news organizations are more than happy to supply them.

We're not disagreeing.

If I see a report that says "polls show that Biden/Trump/Clinton is winning," I'll think "I'll believe it on election day."