this post was submitted on 04 May 2024
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Ukraine has been rationing ammunition and bullets; meanwhile the Russian army has been using 'human wave' tactics by sending poorly trained recruits to the frontline in a bid to force Ukraine use up all of its ammunition.

In Ukraine, the army has been on the backfoot over the last few months; and despite the US package of $61 billion (€56.6 billion) of military support, experts say it will be sufficient merely to hold the frontline and possibly regain some lost territory.

The situation has deteriorated in large part due to a serious shortage of ammunition and weapons from Western allies; where Ukrainian forces say they have been rationing bullets.

Ukraine has been forced to abandon territory westward beginning with Avdiivka in Donetsk region in February.

Due to a distinct lack of military support, Russia has gained and maintained momentum.

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[–] Buffalox 57 points 7 months ago (12 children)

According to Anders Puk Nielsen https://www.youtube.com/@anderspuck, Russia is probably peaking right now, because they have transitioned to war time economy, and they are restoring old Soviet equipment.
The problems for Russia are that their industrial output is declining, despite heavy public investments, in part because of sanctions, and in part because of worker shortage, and their Soviet equipment reserves are dwindling.
Hopefully the situation will get worse for Russia quickly, among other things they are allegedly beginning to experience an oil shortage now. Due to the strategic bombing from Ukraine.
So while Ukraine is hard pressed currently, time is most likely on the side of Ukraine. Which is contrary to what Putin counted on, when he bet the West would quickly tire of supporting Ukraine.

[–] Burn_The_Right 1 points 7 months ago (6 children)

They are now outsourcing labor and materials from their allies. China alone has plenty of both to keep Russia going indefinitely. They will likely not lose a war of attrition any time soon. Putin's bluff will need to be called for this to end in a timely fashion.

[–] Buffalox 7 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (5 children)

China is trying to win over USA and Europe now, receiving visit from Blinken of the US administration, and visiting France and other European countries. So I don't think China is all interested in supporting Russia more than what the west can stomach.
Winning a piss poor economy of 120 million Russian citizens, compared to about 1 billion people in the west with more money is kind of an economic no-brainer.
Also the Russian declining output means a declining economy, and so does declining oil exports. So Russia's ability to pay is declining, and I doubt China feel Russia is a good enough ally to sacrifice their interests in the west, and pay for it too.
But no doubt if China wanted to create problems for us, they could create huge problems by supporting Russia. But it's kind of a lose lose scenario with little if not negative political gain.
Putin made a major miscalculation, and I don't think China want to hang on to that.

[–] joostjakob 2 points 7 months ago (1 children)

Didn't they have 3% economic growth last year?

[–] Buffalox 3 points 7 months ago

Yes they did, or at least that's what they claim.

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