this post was submitted on 08 Jul 2023
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Which is why I still think something else was going on with the Twitter sale. It doesn't make sense for anyone financially.
Unless you imagine it's a bank giveaway to Musk, who will count Twitter as a loss carry forward for years to come when it goes bellyup.
I was, and remain, 100% convinced Musk will never pay those loans. The Saudi, etc authoritarians who bankrolled him knew it was a payment to kill Twitter. The west may have forgotten the Arab spring, but they didn't, and have been scared of Twitter since
Then the banks will take possession of Twitter, and probably arrange a (fire) sale to a financial sponsor. There is no chance the banks will role over like others that Musk is not paying. It’s much more cut and dry on term loans or bridge loans.
The bank group is furious with Twitter/Musk.
Oh I wonder if that bank users assassins...
Musk has always been good at selling himself, but is otherwise a fucking idiot.
Once you internalize this truth, most of his actions, and the actions of others around him, make sense.
Peter Thiel convinces Musk that it's a great idea to buy Twitter, Musk convinces a few bank managers that he's a genius and will make a lot of money, both are lying their asses off.
There were a few other players in the background, all playing on Musk's ego, all wanting Twitter to tank.
It’s definitely not a bank giveaway - the bank group is likely furious. They are hung with $13bn of debt, that is not sellable, and worse, has virtually no pathway to be sellable in the near future. It’s tough to figure out where this debt would be marked, but I would guess the Street has unrealized losses in the $3-5Bn range.