this post was submitted on 02 Jul 2023
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Consider this scenario: I ask you how long it would take you to go to the shops and buy a carton of milk.
You could probably give me a good estimate based on your previous experience going to the shop and buying a carton of milk, but to actually tell me how long it would take would need you to go do the thing then come back and tell me.
Even with your estimation, something could always go wrong and cause your trip to take longer than expected. Maybe there was a traffic jam, maybe the shops are sold out of milk, maybe you get mugged along the way.
Loading bars are the same thing. There’s no way to definitively say how long something will take without doing the thing and seeing how long it DID take. The best you can do it an estimation based on known factors (eg. how long does this thing usually take). So in that sense loading bars are fake
Even worse, the person who has to make the estimate doesn't know anything about the person who has to make the trip. He could live in the store and be done in a single loop, or he could be 90 km out with nothing but a rusty bike for transport.