this post was submitted on 31 Jan 2024
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129
People are worried that AI will take everyone’s jobs. We’ve been here before. (www.technologyreview.com)
submitted 10 months ago by Womble to c/technology
47 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

In a 1938 article, MIT’s president argued that technical progress didn’t mean fewer jobs. He’s still right.

Compton drew a sharp distinction between the consequences of technological progress on “industry as a whole” and the effects, often painful, on individuals.

For “industry as a whole,” he concluded, “technological unemployment is a myth.” That’s because, he argued, technology "has created so many new industries” and has expanded the market for many items by “lowering the cost of production to make a price within reach of large masses of purchasers.” In short, technological advances had created more jobs overall. The argument—and the question of whether it is still true—remains pertinent in the age of AI.

Then Compton abruptly switched perspectives, acknowledging that for some workers and communities, “technological unemployment may be a very serious social problem, as in a town whose mill has had to shut down, or in a craft which has been superseded by a new art.”

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[–] [email protected] 33 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (2 children)

Previous increases in automation and productivity have brought new goods, services, wealth. To be perfectly honest I'm largely done.

The next wave of progress needs to not bring new things but to bring more time off.

The only things I probably want in terms of future tech is medical advances and VR. Everything else fuck it. I'm okay with all the media we got, the Internet, TV games, food, hobbies. I don't have smart anything except a phone. I'm done.

Give me a 4 day work week for what I have now. Then 3 then 2 then 1. I'm done. I don't need more.

Previous results are not sufficient to forecast the future.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (1 children)

The only things I probably want in terms of future tech is

And how would you know? Before cars nobody anticipated them. Same with planes, computers, smartphones... You won't anticipate close to all new tech by extrapolating what we have.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (3 children)

I don't want a car. I don't have one currently. In 1829 Stephenson showed trains were the future and that remains the same today.

I'm not convinced planes and computers have been good for the world. Though I have enjoyed them both tremendously.

But I'm ready to be an old man holding on to old tech. Fuck man. You ever quit your job and travelled the world? Playing poker on a wooden bench with a single light bulb next to the beach, with people you met that day is so much better than the Internet. The shame of it is that most people haven't.

We gave up community and happiness for isolation and sadness.

Also I'm old enough to have seen personal computers change the world. A lot has been lost in the last 2 decades.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 10 months ago

Playing poker on a wooden bench with a single light bulb next to the beach

Yep, done that. And I agree it's great. I need a plane to visit the beach though.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 9 months ago (1 children)

Where would you go if you could do that kind of thing again?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

You mean travelling?

I've done that sort of thing in south America and south east Asia but it is getting rarer, a lot rarer. Mobile internet in Burma (before the recent war) for example seemed better than the mobile Internet in the UK. That country only opened to tourism in 1992 is a war zone, holds the record for longest running civil war and at least initially (way before i was there) you had to buy a data pack directly on the black market from the military. But while I was there it was pretty safe and I didn't feel in danger, but it just goes to show how much the world has moved on.

Generally the poorer the country and the more remote the better chance you got. If you go to Southern Thailand then everyone will just be drinking on the beach or doing things like tours. If you go to a beach resort in Vietnam or Cambodia where there are no shops/bars on the beach. You more likely to have something in the hostel to keep you busy. Basically if people are bored and there is nothing else to do they will talk and play games, if there is something else to do they will do that. Multiday boat trips can be good actually because you are stuck together, that's the last time I felt that community.

Speaking of poverty too. That's changed massively. When I went to Cambodia about 7 years ago you could buy stuff like a meal for less than a dollar. I was told by some people it used to be a lot cheaper years before. People now are saying its like 5-10 more expensive. I wouldnt be surprised if it was 100x as expensive compared to 20 years ago.

South east Asia and South America I would still recommend travelling though. I have heard very good things about the Stans (probably exculding afganistan and pakistan). Met a few people who travelled from Europe to Asia and they said nothing but good things, that may be an option I don't know.

Africa is the last frontier in a lot of ways. But I don't think it's cheap and a lot of people have ak-47s. The backpackers I imagine are a bit more mental but they are probably more old-school and people stick closer together in rough times. I don't have much interest in going.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 9 months ago (1 children)

I’m not convinced planes and computers have been good for the world. Though I have enjoyed them both tremendously.

Sounds like something I've seen in the Unabombers Manifesto.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 9 months ago

I have been meaning to read that.

Technology and happiness aren't correlated though. That's nothing new.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 10 months ago (1 children)

that's all very nice but you don't get a vote on how this turns out. very few if any will.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 10 months ago

Of course I do.

I can vote for someone to represent me in government. The problem is the voting system is shit that no one will vote to change and that people vote for idiots.

At this point it's the people fault.