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Ooh, someone finally realized current polling is way off from the actual results at the voting booth.
The #GOP finally caught the car, now they are getting pulled under the tire.
I'm looking forward to the GOP joining the Know-Nothings in the trash bin of history.
The number is 10k per day.
I did the math a few years ago because I couldn't find anyone else who had published it. This is rough and IANAM (mathmagicman).
Every single day 8,000 boomers and above die, and 12,000 people turn 18 and those numbers are actually accelerating. If you use existing data to estimate conservative/liberal and likely voters within those groups it works out to a delta of 10,000 per day on a national scale. That's 5,000 votes switching every single day. That might not seem like alot. Because it really isn't. Out of 155 million votes cast, 10,000 is .006 percent. But here's the thing. It's cumulative. And it just doesn't stop. It is relentless. it's 300k a month, 3.6 million per year. And that pace is accelerating. Between 2020 and 2024 it's a 15 million vote difference. By 2028 it's 30 million. It used to be that people age into conservatism. But that is not happening with millennials. The demographics are changing, and changing quickly. The most conservative group in the country is dying. While the most liberal group is rising.
We just have to hold on to democracy for a few more years. This will all be behind us. Another 10k today.
Potential problems with your theory are that old people voting percentage isn't way higher than young people and that people tend to get more conservative as they age.
The boomers were the ones out protesting the Vietnam War and fighting for civil rights. Now they are the establishment and behaving the same as those who they protested in their youth.
Hopefully, the batshit craziness will die down, but there will be new conservatives to replace the ones who die off.
People tend to get more conservative as they gain wealth and have something to conserve, hence that trend not continuing for millennials as of yet
This is the real answer. And it makes sense too. Also, your formative years impact your beliefs. Gen X is increasingly conservative, even though they're stuck in the same crap as millennials. They grew up in the "greed is good" 80s.
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read/poll-gen-x-gen-z-take-different-political-paths-rcna66264
Notice how millennials are the least conservative generation by far? That's what comes from being shit on by the economy for years.