this post was submitted on 01 Jan 2024
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Asklemmy
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With the current tiny team, at least a year out. Probably more.
With improved functionality, adoption will likely improve, with improved adoption interest in developing it should improve... Once that feedback loop gets going things can go very fast.
The reddit migration has seeded Lemmy with a bunch of competent client apps, and developers to work on them (I've personally contributed to Thunder). But it didn't do much for the development of Lemmy itself.
Mastodon has achieved critical mass among developer interest, I think, and is teetering on the edge of becoming a real mainstream option. When I first tried it many years ago, it was near unusable for the average normal person. And while it is now much better, it's been years. Lemmy is a lot closer to the start of that same road.