UK Politics

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Heavy election defeat could lead to Tory lurch to right, analysis shows (www.theguardian.com)

submitted 1 year ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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A catastrophic election defeat could lead to the parliamentary Conservative party tilting towards the populist right, Guardian analysis has indicated.

A projection of the seats the Conservatives would retain if there was a further two percentage point swing to Labour before election day, using data from Electoral Calculus, shows that about 40% of the remaining MPs would come from this wing of the party.

In less calamitous defeats – scenarios based on current polling levels, and on a situation where there is a two percentage point swing in favour of the Tories – the proportion would be nearer to 30%, roughly where it is now.

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[–] Jackthelad -5 points 1 year ago (3 children)

It's not much of an opposition if it's from the same political side though, is it?

The duopoly is boring and we need a new voting system to properly reflect the nation's views, but you can't have a centre-left government with a centre-left opposition, because there wouldn't be any opposition!

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

All of our current UK political parties are covering a wide enough range amongst their membership that they can form an opposition with themselves, never mind with a separate party :)

Your personal calibration may differ, but I'd say Labour cover between Left and Centre-Right, Lib-Dems between Centre-Left and Centre-Right, and Tories between Centre-Right and Far Right.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

Assuming the Tories go full nasty party mode that might keep them a few strongholds. However I suspect the challenge to Labour will be from the left who will claim the centerists Labour of Stamer are not left wing enough making it harder and harder to maintain a majority for successive terms. Eventually a Cameron like figure will have to start another detoxifying process to pull the Tories back to the centre when they are bored of not getting power.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

LibDems aren't the same political side. There's more the two opinions In politics.

[–] fifisaac 1 points 1 year ago

Might as well be at the moment. Two centrist liberal parties, except the Lib Dems are slightly more progressive in terms of stuff like voting reform