The heating bill was unpopular because it is a massive hit to the gas industry, which has a famously great lobby and amazing connections to the media. Germanys gas imports are down by 71% comparing September this year with 2021. That is mainly due to the lack of Russian gas transit via Germany, but it massivly hurts the industry. Half of Germanys gas consumption comes from heating buildings, which will be solved by the heating bill. That kind of attack would not happen in an election year.

As for Merz the current polling of the Union party would be considered bad under Merkel. For Laschet a stupid joke was enough to kill his chances of victory, Merz does worse on a monthly bases. He should be at the 40% mark and not at 30%.