this post was submitted on 06 Dec 2023
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Ukraine
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It actually is even worse for Russia. The oil price has fallen recently as the US has been increasing production like crazy. At the same time it looks like the EU has lowered oil consumption a decent bit. If Chinas oil consumption does not grow a lot, which is very much possible, that means the Russia budget deficit is going to increase.
Many say China economy is currently a bit slow too. Hopefully that will help Ukraine a little.
I'm not putting too much hope into this. People have been saying the Russian economy would collapse soon because X and Y since the beginning of the war, and so far it has resisted all threats. I'm sure they are operating on borrowed time, but I'll believe in a collapse when it's actually happening.
Russia currently has 6.5% inflation with 15% interest rate. The only reason the economy is not falling is massive government spending and that is based on oil money. As soon as you remove that Russia has to make really hard economic choices and it seems like they are increasing anti protest units right now. We have seen what happend with Wagner. More armed men in the country and an unhappy population makes Putins collapse more likely. Having problems at the front even more so and Russian losses are very high right now, if Ukranian figures are somewhat accurate.
Thats just what happens with dictatorships. They cover up small problems until there are enough of them and they have a massive crisis. Democracies have small problems talk about them and that avoids massive crisis for the most part. However it is hard to tell what caused the collapse in the end as it always has multiple reasons.