No Stupid Questions
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Two things to bear in mind...
Lemmy existed before this current reddit fiasco, so it will exist after
there are a critical mass of users now, and imo the userbase will continue to grow, with more and more unique content added
Android / iOS apps are out, and in development. Mod tools are coming (iirc). As fediverse becomes less technical / easier to use, it's only going to attract more people
I think it's likely that we're only seeing the first wave as well. The ones most affected by third party app shutdowns are the ones that are posting all of the content and doing the moderation. Once the apps go away, it's likely the most valuable of reddit's users do as well. I have been on reddit since like 07 I think, and once I can't use Apollo any longer my use of reddit is effectively gone. I'll still occasionally browse on desktop, but even then the only way I can tolerate the desktop version is with a bunch of add ons and old.reddit which I assume is next on the block.
We've already seen this on twitter. Now it's just an echo chamber for nazis, increasingly fewer celebs, and marketers (which, tbh it kinda always has been, it's just worse now.) Moving over to mastodon wasn't fun for a week or two, but now there is a critical mass and basically everything I got from twitter I can get from masto now. Twitter still has tons of users and dwarfs masto, but that's a lot of chaff for not a lot of wheat.
In terms of apps, some are out, but there is still nothing that comes close to Apollo especially on iOS. With the dev of Sync and I think RIF announcing Lemmy clients, that's about going to be a done deal. Quite a lot of my regular follows from twitter didn't move over until Ivory and a couple of other good clients came out, so as soon as there is a comparable set of Lemmy clients, I'd say it's pretty much done.
All that said, Reddit's already a shell of what it was even a few months ago. It's maybe not as easy to tell, but as someone who's been there forever, you can tell this is different. And I know personally, even though I used reddit like junkies used meth, I'm now checking rss again, discord for various communities, Lemmy, kbin, and even a few specific forums and so forth.
Spez running an absolute master class in how to ruin a business.
undefined> Spez running an absolute master class in how to ruin a business.
It kinda feels like watching a slow-motion car crash. Fascinating, horrific, hard to look away. It really is quite incredible how he manages to bumble his way from fuckup to fuckup... yet still has his job.
Like you say, 1st July will be interesting to see just how much of an impact closing the apps has on their userbase. I've dipped my toe back in and it feels like the discourse has gone downhill bigtime, which doesn't surprise me... users set the tone of a site, so if a large exodus of people who have some sort of belief in doing the right thing happens, the 'power users' left are not going to be the nicest of people. Some will just be too busy / numb to give a shit, but many of the ones left will be bootlickers by nature.
spez literally took notes from elon and twitter, so reddit's implosion shouldn't be surprising
I think the app part is the biggest factor. I'm using Jerboa, and while it's still good and useful, it definitely has some bugs (crashing when uploading photos has been annoying). I'm still sticking with it, but I can see a more average internet user getting frustrated with that or with the somewhat weird sign-up process and learning how federation-y stuff works.
It'd be sick to have a standard "this is how you sign up" tutorial built into each app!
undefined> I can see a more average internet user getting frustrated with that or with the somewhat weird sign-up process and learning how federation-y stuff works.
Yep this is it. Just got to be patient and keep doing what we're doing, being helpful / polite when communicating, adding content where we cant. Rome wasn't built in a day!