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Putin is urging women to have as many as 8 children after so many Russians died in his war with Ukraine
(www.businessinsider.com)
this post was submitted on 30 Nov 2023
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There is no population crisis, unless you mean there are too many people. Most of the work we do is entirely unnecessary and only exists to help billionaires become trillionaires. At least that's the case in countries that don't need meat to throw in front of bullets.
Necessary jobs are mostly farming, mining, manufacturing, and customer service. The first two have already been automated to need only a tiny percentage of the workforce they once require. Manufacturing is mostly there as well, and is getting closer all the time. Customer service still employs a lot of humans, but even those jobs are being replaced or augmented with physical or logical bots.
Barring climate change or World War 3 doesn't get us first, if things are going the way it does now, we're expecting global population decline or it could plateau. Countries across the world is experiencing increase in standards of living so we can expect decline in birth rates too in proportion.
That is a GOOD thing. So not a crisis.
What makes that a bad thing?
This is fantastic. Humans are shit.
The crisis is that without enough babies, there will not be enough young people to support the older people. It is why places like Canada have such high immigration as it offsets the lack of births from Canadian citizens. Now, it is a crisis from a planet health perspective. No. It is the best thing that could happen right now as we really could use less people and their associated carbon emissions, but it will still impact the economy hard especially since it is becoming a steep birth rate decline in so many countries. Feels like a free fall right now and to address is going to take as much change as it will take to fix the climate emergency. Might even have some of the same solutions.
I say this as someone who had lots of kids - you cannot build an economy on a continuous explosion of population. That is ridiculous. There are enough people - the population of the earth has more than doubled in my lifetime. I'd much rather work till I die, than tell someone else they must reproduce. Let people who want kids have them, let people who don't want kids not have any, it's working out and population growth has slowed and hopefully population will decrease. That's fine, yes many of us will be old at once, that's not the fault of the non-reproducing people. There wouldn't be fewer old people even if everyone had kids, it has to happen before things settle back out.
Very much agree. Besides, it is looking like we really are entering an era of significant human life extension if you believe all the longevity breakthroughs.
Don't care, I'll be dead.
Maybe. There is serious breakthroughs with longevity tech with aging and diseases perhaps being a thing of the past in the decades to come. Maybe.
Lucky we have automation and AI making everyone jobless, will be plenty of people and machines to look after the older generations
That is a real crisis on the horizon as the evidence so far is that there is no support for those who get displaced. I am counting down the days till my career is replaced. I am Imagineering a VR Theme Park and am certain that in the years to come you will be able to ask AI to make you one via a prompt and it will customize it to your tastes. When that happens I need to find a new career. Unsure what but I am hopeful that new careers will open up that we cannot foresee today. That or we will all be in a hellscape of which I have positioned myself to weather.
I think if we don't change the system then we're going to have a world of hurt for pretty much everyone, if we do change the system into something that facilitate an existence where people can survive periods without work or with minimal work then it could become a golden age.
A lot of the big problems with that comes from legacy obsessions which persist even when technical solutions have displaced the need or reason behind them. Building sites are already nothing like they used to be, the cost of construction has fallen dramatically especially in labour time but house prices rise because they're not tied to construction cost but availability, which is often kept purposely low so rich people who run government can have big numbers in their balance s sheets. At some point this stress point will fracture.
Subtle automation already makes things like surveying and designing incredibly easy, we're not far from the point where ai assisted architecture tools are as easy to use as the Sims and will produce plans which can be automatically passed or rejected for the technical side of planning. Not only will more visible forms of automation like concrete shuttering and pouring become more widely adopted this again reducing the time and cost of construction but they'll have sensor driven analysis which can be uploaded to local authorities for instant inspection and verification. Likewise for cable routing, pipework, insulation, plastering, brickwork, roofing, decorating...
When a house can be demolished and rebuilt in weeks for the cost of machine rental and materials then the housing crisis will fade away, especially when industrial areas shrink due to efficiency of automation, office space gets repurposed, and transport infrastructure gains efficiency - areas like where I live in the UK with absurd property prices are almost certainly going to see automated construction tools take a lot of industry and transport underground - shooting cargo down small underground networks could replace a huge amount of road and rail usage which would be a huge positive for people and free up space for housing.
I got off track but what I'm getting at is we can use these things to solve major problems in our society, but we need to make sure people can lose their job and go through peeiods of adjustment without it ruining their life.
I agree, but as you pointed out, we already have many tools to solve most of our global issues, but instead we carry on like we like in a scarcity world. I am concerned about the AI disruption as I am not seeing evidence of us really caring for those impacted let alone the millions impacted daily by how the global economy is run. We can fix so many things, but don’t. Heck, even getting rid of day light savings is a cause too far it seems despite overwhelming support.
That is depressingly true, though I do think there's hope. I'm in a lot of open source dev and design communities, they're flourishing and growing steadily because they're able to build on all the prior developments. Every day people are writing code to improve design tools, and writing code to improve programming languages and development environments so that it's easier to make better design tools .. and the better the design tools get the easier it is to make better designs on them, easier to build on prior open source designs and improve or customise them.
I already use AI coding tools in my open source project, they're awkward and not always useful but for certain tasks they can save hours - for example I got it to divide a circle into an arbitrary amount of sections and return the quadrant coordinates, I could have worked it out and coded it myself but not doing things like that allows me to make much more progress. The easier it gets to code the more time I'll be focused on making it do useful things which will result in a far better product.
Likewise the complexity and quality of stuff I see on 3d printing model sites continues to improve, printers continue to improve... We can't be far away from ai assisted pick&place enabling complex electronics to be built into designs - there will be a cheap open source printer that can make everything except the magnets in the motors. A lot of companies are going to find the their entire product line is completing against items that can be made better and cheaper in any tech guys garage.
It wasn't eBay that took down Tandy and Maplins it was the people with any garage space buying the same bulk orders of components but selling them without the overheads. The same will happen to Hotpoint and Logitech, people who have bootstrapped high quality fabrication labs in the garage selling things made from open source designs.
They won't be able to stop it, they might slow it for a while but progress is as a river in that you can only hold it back so long.
This is encouraging for the open source movement. https://youtu.be/vaMxTSm53UU?si=EGygL-AZBkfsDr-q
Yeah it really is, I think we're going to see a lot more FlOSH starting to take niches in the market
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So you didn't read a word I said beyond the first sentence. Got it.
I do not understand your comment as my comment was building upon yours as you went down the billion support path and I just added the old age pension path.
And elder care, which is set to be a real growth industry
That's fair, but even in that there is a whole lot that automation can do to address the ratio of elderly to caregivers. Japan is ahead of the curve on population decline, and they are not exactly fond of immigrants. That has been a huge driver behind the development of technologies for elder care.
That and healthcare are counted as services iirc, which can contribute to some confusion when you look at 70% ish of the economy being made up of that. But most jobs being created now are like the top commenter said, minimum wage service jobs that don't meet the needs of employees and aren't great for customers, either