There's already plenty of black market ciggies in both NZ and AU. Just watch one of the border patrol shows and every second person they catch is a suitcase full of cigarettes.

The black market in australia is huge. Almost everyone i see smoking at work or at pubs is smoking black market cigarettes or using illegal vapes. If they crack down on the black market i expect to see a large rise in robberies of shops selling cigarettes. The taxes have gone too far. This is also why they won't ban smoking. Billions in tax revenue.